A Modest Farmer [Bert Kelly], “The writing is on the tariff wall,” The Australian Financial Review, August 18, 1978, p. 3. Reprinted in Economics Made Easy (Adelaide: Brolga Books, 1982), pp. 85-87, as “Motor Cars (4).”

Some months ago the Government asked the Industries Assistance Commission whether light commercial and four-wheel drive vehicles should be treated in the same way as passenger vehicles, and so pay the same high rate of duty and be subject to the same quota limitations.

Fred became almost distraught with rage when he heard this because Eccles has put a lot of time and effort into educating us about the mess the car industry is in, how unwise and lavish protection in the past has encouraged the establishment of too many manufacturing and assembly plants so that economic production of cars in Australia is impossible.

The cost of maintaining the industry in its present mess is estimated to be about $500 million a year with most of this burden falling on us exporters.

So when Fred heard that the solution the car industry wanted was to get the light commercials and the 4WDs into the same mess as the rest of the industry so we would have no choice but to buy dear vehicles of one kind or other, he was very angry indeed and went around making thinly veiled threats about what he was going to do to his MP if this happened.

And he went further, and started a campaign to persuade all farmers to refuse to buy vehicles of any kind from Fords, the company that initiated the move for more protection.

And he was getting a great deal of support in the bush. We are getting sick of being milked.

But the Government, bless it, refused the industry request. The IAC report has not yet been made public so we cannot be certain of the reasons for the Government’s action but certainly one telling factor would be the effect on unemployment of the present high levels of protection.

This is illustrated in the accompanying table prepared by Martec, the expert car consultant company, and given in sworn public evidence at the IAC hearing.

New vehicle registrations | Employment in motor vehicle manufacturing | Employment in motor vehicle distribution and servicing

Year to Dec 31 | @ Dec 31 | @ Dec 31
1971 | 504,500 | 89,200 | 147,300
1972 | 500,100 | 89,100 | 151,400
1973 | 571,000 | 99,200 | 160,600
1974 | 583,500 | 87,600 | 163,800
1975 | 593,200 | 83,200 | 168,500
1976 | 606,400 | 87,800 | 171,300
1977 | 561,400 | 80,309 | 166,200


The table shows two things. One is that there are twice as many people servicing cars as there are making them, which is something people often forget. But, even more important, the table shows that one way of increasing unemployment in an industry is to give it so much protection that the consequent increase in price curtails demand.

This has happened with cars; the price of cars is now so high that people do not buy so many cars as is shown in the Martec table.

The only way the Government could maintain employment in the car industry would be to pass a law compelling people to buy a certain number of cars a year. Without such compulsion, the demand for cars would continue to shrink, so production would become even more uneconomic, so protection would have to be even higher, so demand (and employment) would continue to fall.

Why people should be surprised at this is hard to understand. They surely must have heard of the law of supply and demand, and that the traditional way of limiting demand is increasing the price.

The same thing is happening in the textile, garment and footwear industries, where we have been handing out lavish protection irrespective of the effect on the cost of living.

Yet employment in the industry goes down because clothes and footwear have become so dear that people try to make their clothes and boots last longer, while others make their own.

If the Government wants to maintain employment in these industries it would have to pass a law making people buy more clothes or to stop them making them.

Fred, Eccles and I are very pleased with the Government’s decision about light commercials and 4WDs. It now seems to realise that increasing protection does not always create employment in the protected industry, while it certainly discourages employment in those industries which have to pay the price for protection.

The next task will be to get this message more generally accepted in secondary industry circles.

I find that an increasing number of manufacturers are now seeing things more clearly but most of them are rather nervous about getting out on the end of the limb and saying so. But the writing is on the tariff wall.