by a Modest Member of Parliament [Bert Kelly],
“Thought was too much for the old sod,”
The Australian Financial Review, January 3, 1975, p. 3.
Reprinted in Economics Made Easy (Adelaide: Brolga Books, 1982), pp. 71-72, as “Import Quotas (1).”

Nowadays when Eccles comes slinking down the street people duck into doorways to avoid seeing him or being seen talking to him.

A year ago he used to fairly prance along, picking his feet up high, nodding condescendingly to people who were glad to acknowledge his acquaintance.

That was when it was fashionable for people to agree with Mr Whitlam who used to say how sensible it was to use our limited resources wisely so that the general standard of living may be increased.

But now protection is being shovelled out in the fond hope that it will create employment.

Extra protection is given to artificial fibre yarn, and this increases the costs of those who make the yarn into fabric, so these get increased protection.

This increases the cost of fabric and makes it harder for the man who makes the fabric into garments to compete with imports, so the duty on made up garments must be increased, and so the prices of clothes rise.

Then people either buy less clothes or have less money to spend on other things, so there is no gain in employment, but almost certainly a loss because you do not get good employment figures from a sick economy.

The blind panic moves to create employment by increasing duties on the part of the ungodly saddens Eccles, though it doesn’t surprise him.

Long and sad experience has taught him not to expect too high a level of logic on these arid economic matters.

But he has really become distressed about the readiness of people to suggest that the imposition of import quotas will benefit the economy and increase employment.

He knows that many people who favour this facile cure are uncertain of what is meant by the term “import quotas.” He took me aside to explain that the general method of preventing imports from competing with Australian production is to impose tariffs but it can also be done in another way — by simply ordering that only a certain quota of imports can come in and once the quota is filled, then no more can come in that financial year.

On the face of it, this looks like an easy solution; people imagine that, as the imported goods do not have to come in over a tariff wall, then their price will not be increased.

But in the long run import quotas are much more dangerous than tariffs. First, importers have no incentive to increase their sales because if they do they cannot import the extra goods to sell. So the price of imports settles down comfortably alongside the price of local goods.

But a greater problem emerges if the import quotas are left on for any length of time.

The quotas are almost always allocated on the basis that each importer is allowed to import a certain proportion of what he imported in the year before or in some selected base period, so the importer who has a large quota is often content with the situation.

But what about the young, hustling importer who is just starting to make his way up the business ladder? He just can’t make any progress.

As with wheat quotas, import quotas tend to ossify an industry in its present situation and structure and prevent it changing to meet changing circumstances.

The third reason why import quotas are dangerous is because under the rules of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) the imposition of quotas, unless absolutely necessary, is severely frowned upon.

It is fashionable to say that the rules of GATT are broken by other countries with impunity, so why should not Australia do the same?

Yet, in the long term, the arbitrary and inescapable nature of import quotas is rightly regarded as inviting retaliatory action by other countries, and if the practice becomes common, then world trade might well receive a mortal wound.

And as Australia depends more than most countries on the freest possible movement of world trade, so we will suffer more than most if a war is sparked off by import quotas.

So for these three reasons, Eccles see the general acceptance of the imposition of import quotas with grave concern. It is true they act immediately and definitely, but the damage they do is insidious and much more dangerous than most people realise. They are certainly more dangerous than tariffs.

Poor old Eccles. It looks as if he is losing another tariff battle, though he has a pathetic belief that he may live long enough to see the tariff war won in the end, as economic logic is more widely understood. But the thought of having to fight on the import quota front as well is too much for the old sod.