A Modest Farmer [Bert Kelly], “Telling the country where NOT to go,” The Bulletin, September 15, 1981, p. 115.

I recently discussed the effect of the appreciation of the Australian dollar with the South Australian Minister for Industrial Affairs, Dean Brown. There may have been a time when this subject would have been beyond him as it would have been beyond me. But he was well aware of the economic theories involved and indeed had recently had a look at its practical implications also; he had just returned from seeing the surge in coal mining in Queensland.

So he knew what I was talking about when I warned him that the expansion of mining would put considerable strains on our export industries, including some of the miners, and also upon our import-competing industries, such as the car industry.

He listened to me with the respect due to my years and then said: “Yes, Bert, I know all that, I know that the expansion of mining will pose problems. But I am not a dog in the manger who is prepared to sit on the mining industry’s head so as to prevent these problems arising.”

He went on bravely: “These problems would be easier to handle if the Commonwealth Government would give State governments, and indeed everyone else, some guidance how it wants the economy to grow. That’s what we want, Bert, we want the government to tell us if it wants mining to expand, or farming, or manufacturing, or even the service industries. Once we know which path the government wants us to take, then we could proceed with more confidence. But now, without such government guidance, how can businessmen or State governments make their plans?”

Now Brown, besides being intelligent, had been brought up as a true blue Young Liberal, he had been nurtured in the belief that governments should not intervene in the market place. So, though he was begging for government planning, he probably thought that government planning was not as bad as government performance. But when you come to think about it both government planning and practice are bad.

The first and most serious danger in the government telling us where we should invest our money (which is what government planning really means) is that the government is almost certain to be wrong. Just look at its past performances. The mess that the car industry is in is surely a grim monument to government planning. If any readers can give me examples of successful government planning, please let me have them. The Australian scene is littered with the bleached bones of past government planning failures.

People should realise that governments are made up of government ministers and government servants. There may have been a sudden surge in the quality of politicians since I left the political scene but if there has been, I have not noticed it. I would hate to have any minister, past or present, and however dedicated, telling me where to invest my money. I don’t mind them telling other people, but not me. And if any servant of the government suddenly acquires the ability to correctly forecast the supply and demand situation for any product — and this is required for wise government planning — then such a person would not for long be working for the government, he would shortly be sitting in the south of France with his feet in a bucket of champagne!

The second danger in government planning is that small mistakes by government usually become big ones. For instance, if the government was foolish enough to tell Fred and other farmers to grow wheat instead of sheep, and if Fred did what he was told (which is unlikely), then there would probably be a glut of wheat or too many sheep coming on the market at the same time.

Thirdly, even if the government’s advice was right as it must sometimes be, the government will still be in trouble. If it told the farmers to grow barley instead of wheat and they were silly enough to obey, about a third of them would be good at growing barley, a third would be average and the remainder would be bad at it. But because we have come to lean so much on the government, the government would be besieged by the bad ones who would complain that surely they were entitled to at least the cost of producing the barley the government told them to grow.

For these reasons, government planning has always been disappointing. Yet Brown, this bright adornment of the Liberal Party, wants the government to tell us where to invest our money! When I suggested that he would get along well with Mr Hurford, the Labor Party spokesman for these matters, he was quite hurt. But they both believe that governments possess a well of wisdom denied to the rest of us. I think that the government couldn’t plan a booze-up in a brewery.