Kenneth Graham [Ken Baxter], “The economics of survival through a drought,” The Bulletin, May 6, 1980, p. 131.
The metropolitan press has been paying a great deal of attention to the visual impact of the drought and the economic effects upon primary producers and country towns. Vivid pictures of dried, mud-cracked dams and dying stock have been commonplace.
If the rains do not come and the situation deteriorates the story will become even more dramatic.
The Cattlemen’s Union of Australia was the first to call for increased drought aid. The NSW Minister for Agriculture, Jack Hallam, spent two weeks touring drought-stricken areas of NSW and the Premier of Queensland, Joh Bjelke-Petersen, forayed into south-western Queensland. The NSW Government has announced a wide range of drought measures and is serving notice that it expects the Federal Government to pick up a larger share of the cost of drought aid under its natural disaster assistance arrangements.
Meantime, the Federal Government has announced that it will change the taxation laws to allow for water conservation expenditure to be deducted in the year in which the expenditure is incurred. While the measure has been welcomed by the farm groups it really does very little to help those producers with no water, no grass, no prospects of a crop and the urgent need for agistment.
The changed taxation arrangements will supplement already generous concessional loan arrangements given by most of the States for the construction of farm dams and water schemes. However, some farmers argue that concessional loans for farm water schemes encourage the hobby farmer but do not give sufficient incentive to larger livestock owners to “drought-proof” their properties.
The argument against widespread drought aid by the Federal and State governments is that it encourages the less prudent farmer to rely on temporary measures instead of action which would minimise the impact of drought.
A free enterprise approach to drought would be that those unable to cope would be forced to sell livestock. The prices of stock would fall, as would land values, and eventually the imprudent would be forced to sell. Someone would probably be prepared to take the risk of buying in during a drought.
This approach is the “risk-taking” attitude to primary industry. Instead State governments, with the blessing of the Federal Government, allocate funds for subsidising the freighting of fodder into drought-declared areas; the shipment of livestock out of drought-declared areas; concessional restocking loans for producers who have been forced to dispose of stock during a drought and other concessional funds for water scheme and fodder conservation development.
At the present time the drought in NSW has resulted in only about $400,000 being drawn for drought-relief measures. This is expected to increase quickly if the drought continues. With the exception of Western Australia, which has been largely drought-stricken for four years, the drawing of drought-relief funds in other States has been much the same as in NSW.
There is a chance that much of the assistance which the State governments provide under the category of drought assistance become capitalised in either land or stock values. In the longer run it may be prejudicial to smooth commercial adjustment. It certainly creates false impressions about the commercial profitability of areas of pastoral land. If land prices drop, reflecting a poor season, it warns potential investors that investment risks are high and that the prices paid for the land should be pitched accordingly.
Some of the old hands in the wheat industry argue that many primary producers have invited trouble. The “Goyder Line,” which skirted the South Australian inland around the “safe” rainfall mark, was for a long time considered the boundary of the grain-growing areas. Similar imaginary lines existed in other States. Wheat production has extended well beyond the lines, and in some places in all States well into the pastoral zone.
The old hands claim that anyone growing wheat beyond the Goyder Line deserves what he gets.
I suspect that the top 25 per cent of farmers could survive very nicely through a drought and would buy out inefficient neighbours. It might be harsh commercial reconstruction but it would serve to strengthen the rural sector’s capacity to deal with drought.
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Note for Economics.org.au readers
For more Australian insight applying economics to drought relief schemes, see this collection: https://economics.org.au/events/apply-economics-to-fire-flood-and-other-natural-disaster-relief-schemes/.