These never-before-republished pieces overlap and read well together:
1. P. P. McGuinness, “Why the jobs debate gets nowhere,” The Australian Financial Review, October 25, 1978, pp. 12-13.
2. A Modest Farmer [Bert Kelly], “MPs don’t always behave like yahoos and larrikins,” The Australian Financial Review, November 3, 1978, p. 3.
3. A Modest Farmer [Bert Kelly], “They’ll be stroking their platitudes till they purr,” The Australian Financial Review, November 10, 1978, p. 3.

1.
P. P. McGuinness, “Why the jobs debate gets nowhere,” The Australian Financial Review, October 25, 1978, pp. 12-13.

Where are the jobs coming from? This is the increasingly desperate question being asked as the evidence emerges of mounting unemployment, rapid introduction of labour-saving equipment and slow growth expectations over the next few years.

It is a question which has a lot in common with the old criticisms of proposals for tariff cuts, when it used to be said that it was all very well for the Tariff Board/Industries Assistance Commission to remove protection for existing industries, but which industries would grow to replace them?

Both questions are unanswerable. Economic forecasting in the very short term is difficult enough: for periods of years stretching up to a decade it is a very chancy exercise indeed.

At best, as in the case of the IMPACT project sponsored by the IAC and other bodies, it will be possible to sketch out the way in which the framework of the economy will change.

If governments could identify the industries and the particular products, which would be most profitable over the next few years, there would, of course, be no role for private enterprise at all.

But changing patterns of demand, changing technology, new products and processes, and many others factors make the future extremely uncertain.

All that economists and governments can do at best is to point out likely directions in a very general sense and (something never yet done in Australia) lay down a firm and stable basis for policy.

In the case of jobs, it is all too easy to point to jobs “disappearing” as a result of the introduction of new equipment and new technology, but equally difficult to specify what new jobs will come into being.

Many of the jobs which exist in our present economy were unimaginable a century ago, and even a decade ago the significance of the relative growth of the services sector of the economy were not fully realised.

But it is certain that the creation of new jobs to replace jobs which have disappeared is not an easy or smooth process. In the case of shop assistants, for example, new approaches to stock handling and display, the reduction in standards of personal service, the linking of cash registers to centralised data processing equipment, and so on, have all irreversibly reduced the demand for labour in proportion to sales.

Economic recovery, with a large increase in total retail sales, is unlikely therefore to bring about an increase in the employment of shop assistants or to bring back jobs which have disappeared. Even a reduction in the wastes of shop assistants would not change the new technology, with its lower labour requirements.

Much the same applies to the areas of current alarm, such as word-processing, which will greatly reduce the requirements for stenographic labour in proportion to a given level of output; Keynesian methods of fiscal stimulus cannot re-create jobs which have vanished as a result of such basic changes.

But it does not follow that there is a fixed, or dwindling, stock of jobs in the economy — the kind of idea which is implicit in gimmicky proposals for banning overtime, or job sharing, or permanent part-time work or early retirement or a shorter working week. All these, as they are usually put forward, imply an increase in the average hourly cost of labour to employers.

There is the implicit assumption that there is a rigidly fixed amount of employment which can be shared out amongst the labour force, without any compensatory action by employers, even though average labour costs rise as a result.

Thus the bank clerks, now demanding a shorter working week, seem to think that the banks will not reduce the numbers of employees still further as a result.

What the banks can do, and what many firms in Australia have done, is to reduce the rate of recruitment of labour, particularly young workers, and so allow natural wastage to reduce their total labour force. Thus the bank clerks may be able to protect their own existing jobs, but at the expense of potential employees.

By doing so, they help to make the changes in methods involving the new equipment irreversible. So do the shop assistants, who by their opposition to shift work and to part-time work simply ensure that retailing becomes less and less labour-intensive.

Thus even though the initial impetus to the introduction of labour-saving techniques may have come from a relative increase in the price of labour, so that employers substitute labour-saving capital equipment for old equipment, even a fall in wages would not bring about a rapid recovery in employment.

The jobs have truly disappeared — the proportions in which labour and equipment are used have changed. Even if no new technology were involved, this would be slow to reverse.

The workers who are displaced as a result, and those who have yet to find jobs, cannot hope for employment in these industries. This is the basic problem facing the Australian economy as far as employment is concerned, and it is one which the Government, and particularly its advisers in Treasury, are simply refusing to face up to.

No matter how real wages are reduced, it is a fact that the structure of the existing labour force and its skills and habitual occupations do not match up to the pattern of labour demand which would emerge with economic recovery.

Just which industries will expand to take up the slack is at present impossible to say, but it is certain that many people will have to change their habitual or expected occupations in the process. This is a painful and costly business.

It is usually the case that technological process will raise output per head of the population, but it will not necessarily do so immediately.

The only criterion for profitability is that output per head of the employed labour force will rise.

It is only through the growth of new occupations, the expansion of existing labour-intensive industries, or increase in overall demand, that output per head of the whole population rises.

And even so, the distribution of the resulting incomes will not necessarily be such as to immediately benefit even those in employment.

The historical evidence is that all technological progress and investment in capital-intensive production techniques has benefited the majority of the community (though poverty is still with us). But in the course of its introduction there has been an immense problem of adjustment to the new patterns of demand for labour.

The neo-classical economics approach, which sets out neat substitution curves between labour and capital, such that a rise in real wages will reduce total employment and a reduction increase it, cannot take account of the difficulties of the adjustment process — even though as time elapses, substitution in both directions does take place.

The “structural” approach, which is popular in some places, such as the Department of Employment and Industrial Relations, ignores that such substitution takes place.

Instead, it seems to conceive of the economy as a kind of jigsaw puzzle, with lots of pieces which can git together in one way only.

If some of the pieces change their shape as a result of technological change, there is, according to this view, no place for the pieces (labour) which used to fit into them.

In the very short period, particularly in a depression like the present one, that view is not far wrong.

The specific training and habits of workers, the segmentation of the labour market, the discrimination against some kinds of workers, such as women, the network of complicated restrictions on the mobility, the use and recruitment of labour established in self-protection by unions, and the sheer lack of information on the part of workers, makes adjustment difficult even if fiscal stimulus were applied.

It also makes the rapid emergence of inflationary bottlenecks more likely, and hence governments which are strongly averse to inflation will tend to cut recovery short.

Over time, even without government intervention, the labour force will rearrange itself, but in the meantime many workers will have been permanently incapacitated for work.

The problem is how to take account of both the stickiness of the structural aspects of the economy, as well as their irresistible change, so as to enable the pattern of employment to change and new types of demand for labour to develop. This is something which neither the Government nor the unions have faced up to.

No doubt it will be one of the central themes at the forthcoming Victorian conference on unemployment.

However, there is the danger that the two sides will fail to agree, simply because they have different conceptions of how the labour market adjusts, and how employment changes.

~~~~~
2.
A Modest Farmer [Bert Kelly], “MPs don’t always behave like yahoos and larrikins,” The Australian Financial Review, November 3, 1978, p. 3.

Since I have ceased to be an MP, I have been appalled at how awful Parliament sounds on the radio.

For a while I tried to delude myself that the standard of behaviour and debate fell when I left the place, but Fred was quick to say that he thought my departure had improved the standard rather than lowered it.

Evidently something in the Canberra air or the shape of the chamber makes members behave like yahoos — even well balanced people like me.

This is a pity because Parliamentarians can be quite sensible people, really.

If you talk them quietly and alone, or see them at work on a committee when they do not think they are being watched, they frequently behave quite normally.

And sometimes they even behave like that in Parliament, or some of them do. But if they are not being thrown out, or are not assassinating someone’s character, the media do not report them because they are thought to be dull.

It is not surprising, then, if MPs behave like larrikins if they think this is the only way to be noticed by the press.

So I ask you to read a speech made by Senator David Hamer in the Senate on September 26 and which was not reported because it was only a sensible, simple speech without any personal attacks and smart political footwork. It was just packed full of facts and so was not newsworthy.

I was not surprised to see the standard set by Senator Hamer because he used to be in the Reps and even there he talked a lot of sense.

He used to represent a Melbourne constituency and we used to argue a lot about tariffs.

For a while I was hopeful of unloading Eccles on to him and Eccles said that he would be glad to be dealing with someone with more basic intelligence than the poor material with which he was then working. (I think he meant me.)

So Eccles went off happily to instruct Mr Hamer as he then was, but he soon returned with a flea in his ear.

“It’s no good Bert,” he complained, “He’s got a mind of his own. I can’t do anything with him.”

And David Hamer obviously still has a mind of his own and it has taken him a long way along the road to economic understanding.

He never used to be one of the tariff troglodytes who believe in protecting everything that moves; he was far too sensible for that.

But I never really hoped to hear him talk so much sense about tariffs as he did in the Senate the other day.

Senators often claim that their Chamber encourages cerebral activity. If this is so, it doesn’t seem to be helping the others as it does Senator Hamer. I quote from his speech:

Tariffs are not effective in the long run in protecting jobs. In this role in the long run they always do more harm than good. Unfortunately, this is the way in which very largely they are being used at the moment.

But it is not only in the long term that tariffs are damaging. I will give the Senate an example that came to my notice recently.

It concerns a product called vinyl record compound. The problem is this: Australian produced vinyl is inferior in quality and, if used, produces records which discriminating buyers reject in favour of imported records.

For the same reason we cannot export locally produced records to what otherwise would be a good market.

Only very small quantities are produced in Australia and it is not worthwhile for manufacturers to install new equipment to produce a world class product.

There is a substantial tariff on imported vinyl so it cannot be used economically by local companies if they wish to compete with imported records.

So we have this crazy situation in order to protect the handful of jobs of people producing this vinyl we are losing the chance of creating many times that number of jobs in the recording and record-making industry with a chance of substantial exports as well. That is only one example.

If we look at the secondary effects of tariffs used solely as a means of protecting jobs I think we will find that they nearly always do more harm than good.

Now if I had said that even a year ago, people would have got mad with me. The winds of logic and change are certainly blowing through the tariff world.

Senator Hamer said many other sensible things in that speech. You should ask him for a copy and so encourage him to continue being so sensible.

~~~~~
3.
A Modest Farmer [Bert Kelly], “They’ll be stroking their platitudes till they purr,” The Australian Financial Review, November 10, 1978, p. 3.

When I was elected to Parliament I quickly learnt not to say anything that would get me into trouble.

I would perhaps have picked this up myself in time if left to my own devices, but of course this did not happen.

Mavis was on me in a flash. “You must learn to behave like a real Member of Parliament, dear,” she said sternly. “Keep your head down. It won’t matter if you seldom say anything worth saying, just keep out of trouble.”

So that is what I did for 19 years. I got quite skilled at side stepping awkward situations and when I retired from politics it was very difficult to pin anything on me, good or bad.

And the habit of evading the unpopularity that follows making definite statements became so deeply ingrained that I still find it hard to get out on the end of a limb and proclaim an idea of my own.

So when Fred demanded that I take a definite attitude about the forthcoming conference on unemployment, you should have seen my footwork.

I gave the conference my general blessing in an eloquent statement of great length but was careful not to say anything that would enable my critics to brand me as a “union basher” or a “bosses’ man.”

But I said quite a lot about the benefit of everyone loving one another and I ended my oration with an appeal for peace at any price.

When I sat down (I find that I still stand up to speak) I was disappointed that Fred did not applaud. Far from it. He said sourly:

That’s the kind of thinking that has got us into our present mess.

Why don’t you face up to issues instead of trying to duck and weave around them all the time? Of course we can have industrial peace if we give in all the time to irresponsible union demands and accept impossible award conditions.

But doing that is one of the reasons our unemployment is so bad. Labour is simply too expensive to hire in many industries.

You know that perfectly well. Why don’t you say so instead of backing away from even simple problems?

He then compared me unfavourably with Senator Hamer whom I mentioned last week.

So I read Senator Hamer’s speech again and I admit that he did say some things that were worth saying and he said them simply, too.

For instance, this is what he said about the very serious problem of unemployment among our young people:

The tragedy is that our award wage policy is depriving many young people of a chance for a job. The award for young people in their first job is far too close to the adult rate so employers naturally choose experienced people, often middle-aged women re-entering the work force, in preference to juniors.

One can see the damage caused by such high award rates for young people in a recent case in the ACT.

The fast food organisation, McDonalds, recently closed two of its outlets here, claiming that it pays kids in New York $2.60 an hour, in England $3 an hour, in Scandinavia $3.30 an hour but in the ACT it has to pay them $5.36 an hour, which is the adult rate.

When the union secretary involved was asked why his union was destroying jobs for young people, he said he was not going to stand by while multi-national profiteers took advantage of the working class.

He added that the kids didn’t know they were being exploited. This was given in justification of having destroyed their jobs.

It is all ominously reminiscent of the American major in Vietnam who said that in order to liberate a village it had been necessary to destroy it.

Senator Hamer then dealt with the devastating effect of our absurdly high penalty rates, which were recently described by the South Australian Industrial Commission as a cancerous growth.

There are endless examples of the damage done by excessively high penalty rates but I suppose the tourist industry is hit the hardest.

I have been told that, if you are poor, you now go to Singapore, if moderately well off, to the UK, but if you are filthy rich you travel round Australia, staying in hotels.

That would explain why employment in the hotel and motel industries fell by 7.6 per cent last year. And now that domestic air fares have gone through the roof, there will be even more reasons for going abroad rather than staying here for holidays.

If the forthcoming conference is going to deal with these kinds of problems it will be worth holding. But I guess all the politicians will do will be to stroke their platitudes till they purr.

Our book, One More Nail, is to be launched on November 15. Fred says that it will sink immediately.

“That’s what you would expect a nail to do,” he added with his usual logic.