Bert Kelly, “The mixture as before — in capitals …,” The Australian Financial Review, January 28, 1977, p. 3. Referencing Bert Kelly’s “Farming’s only certainty is of being wrong,” The Australian Financial Review, September 8, 1972, p. 3; republished in Economics Made Easy (Adelaide: Brolga Books, 1982), pp. 7-9, as “Supply and Demand (2)”.

The article that follows first appeared in September, 1972, and is unaltered except that two paragraphs have been deleted to make room for this explanation, but the sense has not been changed.

After you had read it, you will realise how things alter on the farming front and how dangerous it is to speak authoritatively about the future in farming.

After all, your Modest Member lives near the centre of things and has access to all the best advice in Canberra, but look at the mistakes I made!

It is dangerous for a Government to tell farmers what to grow because it will almost always be wrong.

Remember what happened when we were told to grow more wheat in the 1930s?

Yet well-meaning, foolish people are always asking us to do that kind of thing, but now they call it “indicative planning.”

Now follows what I wrote in September, 1972:

IN FEBRUARY (1972) AT THE OUTLOOK CONFERENCE IN CANBERRA, MR VINES, THE ACTING CHAIRMAN OF THE WOOL COMMISSION SAID: “FOR WOOL, THE PRESENT AVERAGE DEFICIENCY PAYMENT OF AROUND 80c PER KILO MAY PROVIDE A CEILING TO CURRENT PRICE TRENDS.” ALMOST IMMEDIATELY THE PRICE OF WOOL STARTED TO RISE AND IS NOW ABOUT 100c A KILO.

I DO NOT CRITICISE MR VINES. I THINK THAT HE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO BE RIGHT ABOUT THE FUTURE PRICE OF WOOL THAN ALMOST ANYONE I KNOW. YET HE IS WRONG.

ONE OF THE REASONS WHY I AM MODEST IS THAT FRED KEEPS A CATALOGUE OF MY PAST MISTAKES. MPs HAVE A TENDENCY TO SKATE QUICKLY ROUND OUR PAST ERRORS AND DROWN THEM IN A STREAM OF ELOQUENCE. SO FRED KEEPS A RECORD OF WHERE I HAVE ERRED AND WHEN I SPOKE DISPARAGINGLY OF MR VINES HE TROTTED OUT THIS CATALOGUE. THIS MADE ME SAD.

AT THE TOP OF THE LIST WAS BUTTER. A FEW YEARS AGO I WAS GRIMLY WARNING DAIRY FARMERS THAT THEY HAD NO REASONABLE CHANCE OF SELLING BUTTER IN THE FUTURE. EVER SINCE THEN, THE WORLD HAS BEEN CRYING OUT FOR IT.

NOT LONG AGO I WAS WARNING MY MEAT PRODUCERS THAT THEY WERE TREMBLING ON THE VERGE OF OVER-PRODUCTION. EVER SINCE THEN THE WORLD HAS BEEN BEGGING FOR MORE MEAT.

I DO NOT SEE WHY I SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GRIM RECITAL. I CAN SUM UP MY EXPERIENCE IN THIS MATTER BY SAYING THAT FRED, AND MY NEIGHBOURS, WATCH WHAT I DO WITH CLOSE ATTENTION; WHEN I BUY CATTLE, THEY SELL. THEY HAVE FOUND FROM LONG EXPERIENCE THAT I AM USUALLY WRONG. AND I’M NOT ALONE IN THIS. THE ONLY WAY TO AVOID MISTAKES WHEN PROPHESYING IS NOT TO PROPHESY.

NOW THE REASON WHY I AM BARING MY BREAST IS NOT ONLY TO KEEP MYSELF MODEST, BUT TO RAM HOME THE FACT THAT IT IS DANGEROUS TO DO WHAT THE LABOR PARTY THEORISTS ARE ALWAYS ADVISING, ie, TO MAKE REALISTIC ESTIMATES OF THE DEMAND SITUATION FOR A RURAL PRODUCT AND THEN ADJUST THE SUPPLY TO THE DEMAND.

ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT, IF A CIVIL SERVANT HAD THE ABILITY TO DO THIS, TO CORRECTLY FORESEE THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND SITUATION FOR ANY PRODUCT, HE WOULD NOT BE WORKING FOR THE GOVERNMENT FOR LONG. HE WOULD SHORTLY BE SITTING IN THE SOUTH OF FRANCE WITH HIS FEET IN A BUCKET OF CHAMPAGNE!

THE MAIN REASON FOR THE UNRELIABILITY OF THE WISEST PROPHESIES IS THAT THE WEATHER, IN AUSTRALIA OR ELSEWHERE, USUALLY DOES THE DIRTY ON US. I USED TO KEEP A FARM DIARY AND AT THE END OF THE YEAR I SUMMARISED THE YEAR’S EVENTS. IT ALWAYS BEGAN BY DESCRIBING THE WEATHER.

FREQUENTLY THERE APPEARED THIS COMMENT: “THIS YEAR THE WEATHER, WAS, AS USUAL, UNUSUAL.” AND EVIDENTLY THE WEATHER ROUND THE WORLD WORKS ON THE SAME PRINCIPLE. IT’S USUALLY UNUSUAL. IF YOU ONLY KNEW IN WHICH WAY IT WAS GOING TO BE UNUSUAL, YOU COULD MAKE RELIABLE ESTIMATES OF WHAT THE MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO BE FOR ANY PRODUCT.

I HAVE AN OLD FARMER FRIEND WHO OFTEN GAVE ME THIS SOUND ADVICE: “WHEN EVERYONE ELSE RUNS, MY BOY, YOU WALK. AND WHEN THEY WALK, YOU OFF LIKE BLAZES! I WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH WEALTHIER NOW IF I HAD LISTENED TO HIM INSTEAD OF CHARGING OFF AFTER EACH NEW HARE STARTED UP BY WELL-MEANING THEORISTS WHO PROPHESIED ABOUT THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR A PRODUCT.

THE ONLY THING YOU KNOW FOR CERTAIN, WHEN FORETELLING THE DEMAND FOR PRIMARY PRODUCTS, IS THAT YOU ARE CERTAIN TO BE WRONG. SOMETIMES, WITH LUCK, ONLY A LITTLE BIT WRONG, BUT FAR TOO OFTEN YOU WILL, LIKE ME, BE SERIOUSLY WRONG.

FRED AND HIS FELLOW-FARMERS WILL BLAME YOU FOR WHATEVER HAPPENS. IT IS BEST FOR ALL CONCERNED TO LEARN FROM THE PAST, EXAMINE THE PRESENT, BUT NOT PUBLICLY PROPHESY ABOUT THE FUTURE. THERE IS NO WISDOM IN IT, OR VOTES EITHER.

You see what I mean? That’s what I said in 1972. The only difference is now I would print it in capital letters.

Also of relevance is this piece by Viv Forbes, Chairman of the Carbon Sense Coalition (www.carbon-sense.com) and www.VivForbes.info: