Paddy McGuinness on EPAC’s report, Australia’s Ageing Society:
1. “Matter of equity between generations,” The Australian, January 31, 1994, pp. 1-2.
2. “The blight of the baby-boomers,” The Weekend Australian, February 5-6, 1994, p. 2.
3. “A Recipe for Warfare,” The Australian Magazine, February 26-27, 1994, pp. 18-19.
1.
P.P. McGuinness,
“Matter of equity between generations,”
The Australian, January 31, 1994, pp. 1-2.
The problem of the increasing top-heaviness of the Australian population is going to be one of the most important policy concerns of the next century. Its implications will overshadow the lives of those young people now entering adulthood.
The latest EPAC report, Australia’s Ageing Society, is an important contribution to the debate that must take place on the policy issues involved. There are issues of equity between the generations that need to be taken into account in policy-making. Although a start has been made on implementing policies to deal with these problems, there are many issues yet to be sorted out.
The problem has been realised for some time but only slowly is it being brought to the attention of those who will have to deal with it. The EPAC report puts figures, as good as any demographic projections can be, on the variables.
The problem is, in a nutshell, that we have created an aged incomes and health system that depends on contributions from a growing base of young people; while at the same time we have not produced the young to provide that base. Although it is sometimes suggested that higher rates of immigration could overcome the problem, the report shows this is not possible (and even if it were true there is considerable doubt that immigrants would be terribly happy about being imported as milch cows to pay for the profligacy of earlier generations of Australians).
The problem is twofold. First, there is a growing proportion of the population over 65, and as the baby-boomers (those born in the post-war generation) reach retirement age this proportion will balloon out.
The majority of them expect to live on generous old age pensions for which they have not saved, or even more generous public sector superannuation benefits to which they have contributed little or nothing.
Second, the cost of healthcare for those over 65 is much higher than for young people, so the proportion of healthcare expenditure on the aged to total healthcare expenditure will rise steadily, thus forcing a rise in the share of healthcare expenditure in the gross domestic product.
Thus in 1988-90 healthcare expenditure on those over 65 were four times greater than on those under 65. Those over 65 years made up 11 per cent of the population but were responsible for 33 per cent of the $28 billion spent on health in 1989-90.
During the first 40 years of the next century, there will be a sharp decline in the growth of the labour force: as a result “there is likely to be an increased pressure on the working-age population to provide the level of activity to support the whole population”.
The number of 65-year-olds and over is projected to increase from less than 2 million to more than 6 million between 1991 and 2051. As a result, the aged as a proportion of the entire population is expected to almost double during the period. Different immigration scenarios do not affect this much.
As EPAC says: “The proportion of the population 75 and over is projected to increase from 4.4 per cent to nearly 11 per cent by the year 2051 … It is expected that the population over 75 years will increase by 70 per cent over the next 20 years and over 200 per cent in the next 40 years.”
The Government has begun the process of retirement income reform through the superannuation guarantee charge. Far from being a special benefit, this is a way of increasing taxes on the young in disguise. Without this, EPAC says, financing of social expenditures on the old “might require all taxes rising by over 12 per cent on average to meet increased demands for social expenditures”. Even with the SGC, there will have to be a rise in average taxes of about 8 per cent to finance the increasing cost of the aged.
Economic costs apart, the social policy implications of an ageing society are also very great. There will be an increasing need for care, while the high divorce rates that have become common will mean that the chief source of aged care, the spouse, will be much less available. (One interesting footnote is, however, the fact that as the average age at death rises, an increasing proportion of children will reach retirement age and be available to care for their aged parents. But to rely on a sudden decrease in selfishness on the part of baby-boomers is not advisable. Instead they are likely to lobby strongly for more social expenditures on themselves and their parents.)
Much of the high proportion of medical expenditure on the aged is incurred within the last two years of life. Among the over-75s, almost half of total health expenditure is on the 13 per cent who die within two years.
Inevitably, as the healthcare bill for the aged rises there will be increasing pressure on hospitals and doctors to withdraw or deny expensive treatment by way of equipment and medication. And the social attitude towards euthanasia and suicide of the elderly is likely to change also.
The EPAC report concludes on a hopeful note: “Social changes during the next 50 to 60 years will involve major shifts in social contracts between the young and the old, the working-aged and the retired, men and women. Development of a sense of mutual obligations and entitlements may be required. A move to greater inter-generational solidarity would be particularly appropriate if such a movement began in 1994, the International Year of the Family.”
In other words, now that the baby-boomers have created a situation in which they in their old age will need the support of families and will be facing a workforce increasingly reluctant to pay higher taxes to support them in an extended old age, they are evincing a greater interest in traditional support structures for the aged.
***
2.
Padraic P. McGuinness, “The blight of the baby-boomers,”
The Weekend Australian, February 5-6, 1994, p. 2.
The ageing of the Australian population is a problem that is attracting increasing attention as we look forward to the next century. What has now become quite clear is that the baby-boomer generation has created a burden that will blight their children’s lives.
The problem has most recently been summarised in a paper issued by the Economic Planning and Advisory Council, Australia’s Ageing Society, published a few days ago. In brief, it is that as a result of the fall in birthrate (immigration complicates but does not alter the picture) that followed the boom in births after World War II, the average age of the Australian population is rising. Due both to pension and superannuation benefits and to the rising costs, medical and institutional, as well as rising life expectancy, the cost of caring for the aged is rising at a disproportionate rate.
Thus, over the working lives of the young now entering adulthood, and the generation yet to be born, there will be a growing burden of supporting the old.
However, there has been some confusion as to just what this means for the present generation of old people — that is, those over 65 now. It is not this generation of old people who are the problem — on the contrary, it is their children who are the problem. Those Australians born here or elsewhere before 1929 have not created the problem. They lived through the Great Depression and the war (the overseas-born had an even worse time of it); those now old are those who postponed family formation and having children through the 30s (when there was mass unemployment) and the war.
They did not cease having children altogether, of course; but the baby boom began (here and elsewhere in the world) at the end of the war. The generation who were the parents of the baby-boomers were the initial creators of the welfare State; they were strongly family-oriented; they saved and invested; they spent social funds heavily on expansion of the health and education system especially when their children began to come of age in the 50s. That is, they invested heavily in the next generation; they did not leave them a huge mountain of debt or of future tax liabilities.
They began to erect a welfare system based on the principle of “community rating”. That is, they assumed that their children would have an attitude to the family much like their own, and would have enough kids to ensure that the population kept growing at a fairly steady rate. When this is the case there is no difficulty with a community rating principle — there are always many more young people than old.
The problem which is emerging now is in no way the fault of the over-65s, or if it is, it is so only insofar as they were excessively generous and indulgent to their children, the baby-boomers. They raised a generation that was spoiled and greedy, contemptuous of their elders and totally self-centred, believers in a welfare State that would ensure they would never need to save, resistant to social welfare contributions and taxes. Above all, the baby-boomers cared more for themselves than for family formation and the production of the next generation. (Appropriately, they have also been christened “the me generation”.)
They accepted the convenient assumptions of the community rating system and blithely consigned the future costs of their old age to their children, while being too selfish to have enough of them to make the system work. In the younger days they wore T-shirts warning against trusting anyone over 30; in the 60s there was the convulsion of self-indulgence and silly idealistic protest that led, in the 70s, to the conviction that they had the right to grab as much as they could, while telling their children how wonderful and idealistic they were. Tertiary education was made totally free, with allowances for all; government handouts to the idle children of the middle-class multiplied.
The bills started to come in in the 80s, of course, and financial stringency made it necessary to start cutting back on the gravy train. The children of the baby-boomers do not get free tertiary education (they do not get much education at all, often enough, thanks to the baby-boomers in the teaching profession who did not even bother to study) and all the things the baby-boomers assumed would come free for ever are proving to have a cost.
Above all, as life expectancy rises (thanks to the discoveries of the pharmaceutical companies, the biologists and other scientists rather than to the medical profession) and old age looms ahead for the baby-boomers they are beginning to become obsessed with personal health, diet, longevity and the removal of the retiring age. They have, belatedly, discovered that not everybody over the age of 65 is useless — after all, the first of the baby-boomers will turn 65 in about 16 years. Some of them (mostly in the Public Service) are contemplating retirement before the end of the century.
It is therefore now in the self-interest of the baby-boomers to concern themselves with the welfare of the aged, to insist on greater expenditure on geriatric medicine and facilities, and even to legislate to abolish the retirement age and forbid discrimination against the aged. So the present generation of aged and those about to enter the ranks of the aged will do quite well out of the self-interestedness of the baby-boomers. Those currently 65 and above have little to worry about — there will be a growing pretence of caring for the old by the baby-boomers as they prepare soft berths for their own generation.
Indeed, those parents of an age to have had to put up with the abuse, ranting, demonstrating and phony political idealism of the 60s will at last be getting some kind of return from their children. There will be increasing demands for better and better nursing-home, hostel and home-care facilities for the aged, and for unlimited expenditure on expensive life-prolonging medical procedures and diagnostics.
The exception to this is of course treatment for those who are, in the self-righteous glow of the new health fascism, considered to be offenders. Thus, some doctors in Britain have recently taken it upon themselves to deny treatment to smokers. As the new puritanism of the baby-boomers becomes ever more obsessive, with campaigns being mounted against smokers, drinkers, people who like food rich in sugar, starch and fats, people who have refused to rush around in sneakers or pedal bikes furiously, there will be an attempt to discriminate against some of the aged on the grounds of their present or previous lifestyles.
But the catch in all this is that the baby-boomers are trying to pass the burden on to the next generation rather than bear it themselves. This is what the superannuation guarantee charge, the Higher Education Contribution Scheme and most “user pays” charges are really about. In fact, smokers particularly have already contributed far more by way of taxes than they will ever take out in medical and hospital treatment.
The conflict in general will, therefore, not be between the decision-makers of the next decade (who are mainly baby-boomers) and the already aged, but between the baby-boomers and their own children and grandchildren who are going to be handed the bill for the baby-boomers’ profligacy, irresponsibility, selfishness and determination to prolong their own lives. It is the aged of the next thirty and forty years who have cause to fear a new revolt of the young.
***
3.
P. P. McGuinness, “A Recipe for Warfare,”
The Australian Magazine, February 26-27, 1994, pp. 18-19.
The generation of the baby boomers is now taking control of our society, and that generation has a fair claim to be the most selfish, self-centred and self-indulgent in our history. Rather than building for the future they have taken for themselves, consuming their own patrimony as well as that of their children.
They have done this in the name of the highfalutin nonsense of the sixties and seventies (which they present as the high points of modern history) and are now trying to impose their youthful fantasies as a rigid orthodoxy on the generation now growing to adulthood. At the same time they have so mismanaged the social, educational and economic system that their children are facing a society with growing poverty and mass unemployment, ridden by crime, drugs and despair. And they have built a set of official myths which throw the blame for the virtual breakdown of the family and the explosion of child abuse on anyone but themselves.
Because of age and seniority the baby boomers are taking over the crucial middle and senior levels of management in private and public sectors. When they were young, of course, they promoted the myth of early senility — everyone over 30 had to be pushed aside to allow their own immediate accession to power.
Now that they are themselves middle-aged or aging, they have discovered the importance of experience and age; compulsory retirement ages are being prohibited, and “age discrimination” is to become a crime. Having overindulged on tobacco, marijuana, acid and every silly fad of the past 30 years they have now discovered a new puritanism which they try to impose on their children. Having indulged in massive casual sexual promiscuity and display, they now campaign against pornography and instruct their children to wear armour and fill out questionnaires before jumping into bed.
The baby boomers gave us the silly sixties, the snouts in the trough seventies, and the cash hungry eighties: the speculative boom and the greed of that decade was merely the application by the younger baby boomers of the lesson they had learned from their elders — under the hypocrisy of the language was the simple message, taught by public servants, teachers, welfare bureaucrats, and middle-class socialists — grab all you can at someone else’s expense. Now they are trying to impose the politically correct nineties.
All generations are selfish. But unlike their parents, the baby boomers developed the welfare state, which grew out of the Great Depression, into a system for living on the never-never for a single generation. They demanded low taxes and generous social benefits for all, especially handsome unfunded pensions and superannuation entitlements. These were to be paid for by the taxes of future generations. But they forgot about their own selfishness. They did not have as many children as their parents, nor did they save. The population increase which “community-rating” demanded never came.
The result is a huge burden on the young who will have to save, as their parents did not, for their own old age while paying for their parents old age, and supporting them at increasingly high medical costs as they try to live longer and long while staying in control. It is a recipe for generational warfare and social explosion.
Do-gooders should glorify smokers « Economics.org.au
February 5, 2016 @ 11:55 am
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