by a Modest Member of Parliament [Bert Kelly], “I was right” — but he’s off to hospital …,” The Australian Financial Review, September 27, 1974, p. 3.
I am often irritated with Eccles, his mournful insistence that we are always teetering on the edge of disaster I find wearing.
At each Budget time he really wallows in his misery, but this year, he is even worse than usual.
This year I have an uneasy feeling that he may well be right, that we are indeed sliding uncontrollably into an awful economic mess.
It is true that we may be doing this for the nicest of reasons, with our haloes on our heads and our hands over our hearts and so on, but we are going down the drain just the same.
It reminds me of the man who was being rushed to the hospital in an ambulance after an accident and saying through his muffled bandages, “Well, I was in the right anyway” — but he was still going to the hospital.
Why do I feel so certain that we are still going to the hospital, well meaning though we be?
The reason is the whole arithmetic of the budget depends on the inevitability of inflation. Indeed, the Budget assumes that there is going to be an inflation rate of at least 20 per cent made up of a 22.5 per cent increase in average annual incomes with a possible (though not probable) increased rate of productivity of 2 per cent. This will give an inevitable increase of 20 per cent in prices.
So we are going to have a 20 per cent rate of inflation, as even the Treasurer blandly admits. Indeed, if we don’t have such a rate of inflation the books won’t balance.
But if we do have this 20 per cent rate of inflation one thing must follow with an awful logical tread and that is the mirage of the taxation cuts which was supposed to induce the unionists to be logical and responsible, will disappear like mist in the morning.
Let me show why. The average weekly wage earner in Victoria last financial year earned about $6,150 a year, and if he had a wife and two dependent kids he paid about $1,000 in tax, assuming that he had 10 per cent deductions.
The budget has now reduced his taxation so if his wages were to remain the same he would pay less tax this coming year and so he would get more income to spend, so he could be expected to be more responsible and work better and strike less.
But the Government has assumed that his average wage will increase by 20 per cent to $7,542 a year and he would thus go into a higher tax bracket and so he would then pay $1,300 in tax at the new rates, an increase of $300.
But his wage of $7,542 will have very little increased purchasing power than his last year’s wage of $6,150 as prices, so the Treasurer thinks, will have increased by 20 per cent. But he would be paying more tax.
So the hope that the union leaders are going to behave more responsibly because of the Budget seems a little optimistic, to say the least. But perhaps the rest of us will be expected to shoulder the burden of lifting the economy out of the mess it is in.
But will we? We see an increasing percentage of our GNP going to the Government sector, with a corrective decrease to the private sector.
We are told by the socialists that the private sector isn’t very nice — hasn’t got very high ideals, and so on.
But the fact remains that it is the private sector that is engaged in producing the economic cake which the socialist government is so enthusiastically cutting up.
However well meaning the Government may be and however sharp its knife, it is the size of the economic cake that is important.
And certainly the private sector is being discouraged from getting on with the cooking.
But the economic cake is not going to grow, not only because of the increasing of percentage of resources diverted from the cake-making sector to the cake-cutting sector, but also because the incentive to make a bigger cake will diminish as the new unearned income tax starts to bite.
This will discourage investment in new machinery and so on, so again the economic cake will be unnecessarily small.
So, for all these reasons the economic cake will be smaller than it ought to be though it may look larger viewed through the telescope of inflation.
But because there will be less cake to cut up, we will tend to quarrel even more over our share of the diminishing slices, so there is a real risk that our productivity rate may be even lower than 2 per cent, as this inflation rate may well be over 20 per cent.
It is true that as we go down the economic drain, we can claim that we are doing so for the nicest of reasons, that we mean well.
But when I explained this to Fred his reply was quick. “Any fool can mean well,” he said. “It is doing well that is hard.” And I have an awful feeling that we aren’t really doing too well.
Make Slogans Great Again — e.g., “Face Facts and Help Ourselves!” « Economics.org.au
August 20, 2018 @ 3:20 pm
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