Bert Kelly, “Beware the popular economist,” The Bulletin, June 30, 1981, p. 131. Reprinted in Economics Made Easy (Adelaide: Brolga Books, 1982), pp. 233-35, as “Money Supply and Cigarettes.”
In the early 1960s, when I had only been in Parliament a few years, Charlie Adermann, then the Minister for Primary Industry, gave me some fatherly advice. “Don’t listen to economists, Bert,” he said sagely. “They are the cause of most of our problems.” I was then taking my first faltering steps along the road of economic understanding and I remember we were discussing the report of a committee of inquiry into the dairy industry. The economists of that time were making some cutting criticisms of the government’s actions. One of the most forthright critics was a Doctor Harry Edwards, the present Member for Berowra, who, at that time, had a mind of his own. The economists were giving Charlie a rather rough time of it, pointing out that it was fundamentally foolish to encourage the production of increasing quantities of butter which we had increasing difficulty in selling. I can understand that Charlie hated economists; he loved helping dairy farmers and it irritated him to have the economists telling him he was wrong. So he sternly warned me against listening to them.
That was before Eccles loomed on the scene, oozing economic advice and virtue. If I had taken Mr Adermann’s advice, and Mavis’s also, I would have spurned the wretch, but foolishly I didn’t and that is why I now have to wring a reluctant living from the land. I now warn all budding politicians to avoid economists because they persist in giving unpopular advice. That is why they are so sour looking, almost everyone hates them like I hate Eccles. If you find a really popular economist you should regard him with grave suspicion; he is almost certainly telling lies.
These thoughts went through my mind when I found that economists were warning the government that an increase in the supply of money caused by the large inflow of capital, and the increase in mineral exports, was making it harder to control inflation.
Now I have to admit that when economists start talking about the dangerous effects of an increase in the supply of money I go glassy-eyed and try to edge out of the conversation. I have been troubled all my life by having a supply of money that was too small so I always find it hard to see why it should be bad for a country to have a supply that was too big. “It’s probably those wretched economists that Charlie Adermann warned me about, just trying to give unpopular advice,” I said to myself. “I wouldn’t be surprised if Eccles isn’t behind the whole business.”
Then I blundered across a book edited by three very grave economists, Hancock, Hughes and Wallace, which contains a chapter written by an ex-POW which describes how the prices in the POW camp fluctuated with the money supply. It was a big camp with a good deal of commerce between the various groups and the money unit they used was cigarettes. There are many intriguing descriptions of how markets and black markets sprang up quite spontaneously, but the most interesting thing for me was to find that if there was an increase in the supply of cigarettes, the price of all traded goods — the bully beef, the bread and everything else — went up also. And if the supply of cigarettes fell, so the price of everything expressed in numbers of cigarettes fell too. So prices in the camp fluctuated with the supply of money, just as Eccles and his mob have been saying they will.
Many people in charge of the camp were naturally infuriated that they could not prevent prices fluctuating in this unregulated way which made commerce more difficult. And the medical officer in particular was concerned that some prisoners were spending their cigarettes unwisely. So some very strict rules were made to hold the price of goods steady and particularly those goods that were good for people, things such as diced carrots. But it wasn’t long before the black market took over and the old law of supply and demand ruled again.
There was evidently much argument about the rights and wrongs of this kind of behaviour and some very strong criticisms were made about those who were thought to be behaving badly. But the author sums it all up rather sadly at the end by saying, “Such arguments were hotly debated each night after the approach of allied aircraft extinguished all lights at 8pm. But prices moved with the supply of cigarettes and refused to stay fixed in accordance with a theory of ethics.”
We now have the economists who tell us that if we do not take urgent action to diminish our money supply, then prices will inevitably rise as they did in the POW camp. So if the government really wants to beat inflation, then it just has to take unpopular action to screw down the supply of money.
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Further reading for Economics.org.au readers:
A Modest Member of Parliament [Bert Kelly], “Inflation breeds moral decay,” The Australian Financial Review, March 12, 1971, p. 3. Reprinted in Economics Made Easy (Adelaide: Brolga Books, 1982), pp. 133-34, as “Inflation.”