More featuring Bert Kelly»

1. The importance of easing the fear and pain of change (February 29, 1980)
2. What to do when market forces control exchange rate (March 7, 1980)

1.
A Modest Farmer [Bert Kelly], “The importance of easing the fear and pain of change,” The Australian Financial Review, February 29, 1980, p. 11.

Fred keeps nagging me because I do not write more often about the importance of exchange rate movements. He has become particularly interested in the subject since the recent Agricultural Outlook Conference where the importance of exchange rate movements was emphasised.

Eccles says that our exchange rate, now that it moves more freely with supply and demand pressures, acts to keep the value of our imports and exports in balance.

He also says that there is only one way of being paid for exports and that is by imports. This is an economic law like the law of supply and demand.

You may not like such laws but you have to obey them in the end, if you want to or not.

Because exchange rate movements act to keep imports in balance, it follows that any government actions such as erecting tariff or quota barriers, which make it harder for imports to come in, also make it more difficult for exports to go out.

It was Dr Gregory who first brought this to Eccles’ notice during the mining boom in the early 1970s. When mineral exports expanded as they did then, imports just had to expand to pay for them.

This is why the Labor Government cut tariffs by 25 per cent, to encourage the imports that had to come in to pay for these mineral exports.

The exchange rate was moved up at the same time, again to encourage the necessary imports.

Perhaps it may have been better to have left the whole burden of increasing imports to fall on exchange rate movements.

These would have increased imports in the end anyway and without all the argument that was associated with the 25 per cent tariff cut.

But be that as it may, the important thing is to realise that then, as mineral exports expanded, other exports, even rural exports, had to contract, or imports had to increase.

Then in November last year, Mr John Stone, the Secretary of the Treasury, with crystal clear logic, spelt out the lesson yet again.

He recognised that, because of the impending world energy shortage, and because of our great reserves of coal and uranium, Australia is teetering on the edge of an explosion in mining and energy exports.

And if we successfully grasped this opportunity, we would either have to contract other exports or else encourage imports.

He said that the preferred way would be to lower trade barriers so as to encourage these imports, but if the Government did not do this deliberately, the movements in the exchange rate would do it automatically.

Then at the Outlook Conference, Andy Stoeckel, a BAE officer, gave an excellent paper on the effect on agriculture of the energy crisis.

You should read the paper because it is packed full of facts, some of which you will not like.

In his talk he used a pregnant phrase which I wish I had had the wit to invent.

He said that, not only would our mineral exports increase to meet world demand, but we would also have a great natural advantage in producing electricity because of our great coal reserves.

So we should have a great opportunity to turn our very plentiful and cheap bauxite into aluminium and that we should regard aluminium as “congealed electricity.”

When you put the opportunity to export congealed electricity alongside the possibilities of expanding the export of other minerals, it does indeed look as if we are on the edge of an export boom. And if we are, then farmers as well as others should be warned about what is likely to happen.

There will be some who want to sit on the mining industry’s head to prevent it getting going to fill the world’s needs. They may think that they can stop the economic laws working as the textilers do.

But these people should realise that every barrier to the importation of orange juice, cheese, wine, brandy, lamb or any other primary product, will damage exporters in the same way as does the tariff on textiles.

It is clear then that there is going to be a great deal of activity in the bucket of worms which is the economy.

If we are to grasp the great opportunity to meet the world’s needs and to improve our standard of living at the same time, there will have to be great changes in a great many industries.

And change is always feared and resented by farmers even more than by others.

We must try to ease the pain of change but we must never try to stop it.

The economic laws will win in the end, no matter how poignant our pleas that change pass us by.

2.
A Modest Farmer [Bert Kelly], “What to do when market forces control exchange rate,” The Australian Financial Review, March 7, 1980, p. 11.

Last week [above] I discussed the implications of the likely export explosion of ordinary and energy minerals, and “congealed electricity” in the form of aluminium and similar electricity intensive products.

I said that, if the exchange rate was allowed to move with market forces, then exports of other products would be discouraged while imports would be encouraged.

Eccles complains that I did not warn people, and particularly the Government, that if the exchange rate was held artificially low, then we would soon be awash with money with devastating effects on inflation, as happened in 1972 when the exchange rate was held down by Country Party pressure.

This we must never allow to happen again.

However, on the assumption that we are going to allow, or even encourage, the exchange rate to move with market forces, what are the further implications of the expected expansion of mineral exports?

Bitter experience has made me cynical when governments or other people put on their prophet mantles, but they continue to do it in spite of their mistakes.

So if others do it, I don’t see why I shouldn’t have a go.

And I am encouraged to do so because I won’t have to take the responsibility for my mistakes, so I will be like most of the other prophets in this.

And, because of my advanced age, I am likely to be dead when my theories are nailed out on the cross of action.

This comforts me a lot.

Fortified with a mixture of cynicism and fatalism, what advice should I give the country if the expected expansion occurs and we are men enough to let the market forces control the exchange rate?

My first advice would be not to invest money in industries that have to compete with imports because imports will become cheaper in our money as the exchange rate moves up.

The industries which are dependent on high rates of tariff and quota protection such as textiles and cars will be bad risks unless they can adjust to the changing situation.

This advice about avoiding investment in import competing industries applies to the rural sector also.

The citrus, mushroom, cheese, brandy, lamb and similar industries who need, or say they need, protection from the outside world, will be bad bets in the long term.

You don’t have to be a financial genius to advise people to put money into industries that service mining.

The heavy machinery should be able to take advantage of this opportunity if they are not too busy on their knees asking for government help and so are unable to stand up and fight.

Because an export expansion will raise our living standards, I would put money into the service sector which will continue to expand.

I would be particularly attracted to soft living products such as beer, soft drinks and massage parlours.

I know that these are unworthy ways of earning money but I am giving advice about earning money, not morality.

I hope we could put a lot of our new wealth aside for wise government on social services.

I am not optimistic about being able to do this wisely but we should try even if we know that most of the milk of human kindness will end up on the cowshed floor.

At least, we won’t be able to claim, as we can now, that we can’t afford to be generous.

If we are properly tough with our exchange rate management, our inflation rate should be lower than in other countries so we should be able to expand those industries in which we have natural advantages.

But we must recognise that, if this expansion takes them into the export market, they too will help push the exchange rate still higher.

We should be able to learn from the experience of the OPEC countries who have had a much more rapid expansion of their export income than we can hope to have.

One result for them has been a compulsion to import at almost any price so that they can get paid for their exports of oil.

So they buy sheep at high prices because they just have to buy something and it might as well be sheep.

And that is why their wharves are choked with goods and their harbours with ships waiting to unload.

If the OPEC countries cannot import goods, they have to leave their money overseas so they invest it in all kinds of odd adventures.

They are pushed urgently along the paths of increasing imports and increasing overseas investment with a force that makes it hard for them to do either wisely.

We should not have this pressure on us but at least we should start thinking how we are going to handle the situation if things develop as they might.

I do not often give gratuitous advice. The advice you get for nothing is usually worth that. So if you don’t like it, I suggest you do some thinking for yourself.

(in order of appearance on Economics.org.au)
  1. Bert Kelly on his journalism
  2. Move for a body of Modest Members
  3. Modest Members Association
  4. Bert Kelly's Maiden Parliamentary Speech
  5. Government Intervention
  6. 1976 Monday Conference transcript featuring Bert Kelly
  7. Bert Kelly, Hayek and Mencken on the virtues of farmers
  8. Sound economics calls for quiet from government
  9. Petrol for Farmers
  10. Some Sacred Cows
  11. Experiences in Parliament
  12. Spending your Money
  13. Is Taxmania a politician fetish?
  14. How Bert Kelly repays a free feed
  15. Modest column #898
  16. Chicken-hearted feathered friends strange bedfellows on a feather bed?
  17. Who needs literary licence?
  18. A touch of Fred's anarchy
  19. Helping the farmers help themselves
  20. Standing on the shoulders of the downtrodden
  21. Supply and Demand
  22. Bert Kelly responds to claims he is arrogant and uncredentialed
  23. Politics: it's a very confusing business
  24. The best featherbeds run on rails
  25. Bert Kelly on Disaster Relief
  26. Bert Kelly Wants to Secede
  27. Blinded by their tears
  28. Anti-freedom pro-tobacco industry lobby harmed Australia
  29. Under Labor, is working hard foolish?
  30. An Idiot's Guide to Interventionism
  31. Is free priceless healthcare worthless?
  32. Can government kiss it better?
  33. Bert Kelly Destroys the Side Benefits Argument for Government
  34. Bert Kelly gets his head around big-headed bird-brained politics
  35. First Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  36. Second Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  37. Third Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  38. Fourth Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  39. Fifth Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  40. Sixth Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  41. Bert Kelly on the 2011 Budget and Australia's Pathetic Journalists and Politicians
  42. Bert Kelly, Bastard or Simple Sod?
  43. Liberal Backbencher Hits Govt. Over Import Restrictions
  44. Bert Kelly feels a dam coming on at each election
  45. Bert Kelly Enters Parliament
  46. Why take in one another's washing?
  47. Bert Kelly breaks the law, disrespects government and enjoys it
  48. Gillard's galley-powered waterskiing
  49. State Premiers are always asking for more taxing powers
  50. Can price control really work?
  51. Should we put up with socialism?
  52. We're quick to get sick of socialism
  53. Time the protection racket ended
  54. Can't pull the wool over Farmer Fred
  55. People not Politics
  56. Bert Kelly admits he should have had less faith in politicians
  57. The inspirational incentivising Dear Leader Gough Whitlam
  58. Labor: a girl who couldn't say no
  59. Why leading businessmen carry black briefcases
  60. Ludwig von Mises on page 3 of AFR
  61. Bert Kelly's empowering feminism
  62. Another shot at motor car madness
  63. Mavis wants the Modest Member to dedicate his book to her
  64. What if the whole country is swindled?
  65. Moss Cass: "Flood plains are for floods"
  66. A worm's eye view
  67. Eccles returns to haunt us
  68. How to grip a politician's ear
  69. It's hard to digest this economic cake
  70. Time to Butcher "Aussie Beef"
  71. Cold water on government-instigated irrigation schemes
  72. Hooray for Ord River Dam!
  73. Tariffs paid by exporters
  74. The problem of principles v popularity
  75. If you support State Quotas, where will your logic take you?
  76. Against guidance by government
  77. A socialist in Liberal clothing
  78. Never ask the government to help
  79. Don't listen to economists!
  80. Bert Kelly's revolutionary strategy
  81. Welfare state incentivises bludging and being thrown out of work
  82. It all sounds like bloody politics to Fred
  83. Mavis wants me to get in for my chop
  84. Whitlam's July 1973 25% tariff cut
  85. Bert Kelly on Import Quotas
  86. Good directions when government backseat driving, like reversing down wrong side of road
  87. Barriers to imports are barriers to exports
  88. "I was right" — but he's off to hospital ...
  89. Kicking the multinationals is too easy
  90. Bert Kelly reviews The War Diaries of Weary Dunlop
  91. Bert Kelly reviews We Were There
  92. Tariffs get the fork-tongue treatment
  93. Bert Kelly reduces government to its absurdities
  94. Politician sacrifices his ... honesty
  95. It's all a matter of principle
  96. Bert Kelly Destroys the Infant Industry Argument
  97. Bert Kelly Untangles Tariff Torment
  98. Bert Kelly resorts to prayer
  99. Eccles keeps our nose hard down on the tariff grindstone
  100. "Don't you believe in protecting us against imports from cheap labour countries?"
  101. Even if lucky, we needn't be stupid
  102. Great "freedom of choice" mystery
  103. Small government's growth problem
  104. I like my kind acts to get a mention in the press
  105. A Modest Member rakes the embers
  106. Tariffs Introduced
  107. More About Tariffs
  108. Sacred cow kicker into print
  109. Bert Kelly's 1984 two-article quote-collection on Aboriginal policies
  110. Modest Member must not give up
  111. Traditional Wheat Farming is Our Birthright and Heritage and Must be Protected!
  112. Tariff-cut nonsense lives on
  113. Bert Kelly brilliantly defends "theoretical academics"
  114. The high cost of protection
  115. Generosity creates problems
  116. The Society of Modest Members
  117. John Hyde's illogical, soft, complicated, unfocussed and unsuccessful attempt to communicate why he defends markets
  118. Modesty ablaze
  119. Case for ministers staying home
  120. The unusual self-evident simplicity of the Modest Members Society
  121. Animal lib the new scourge of the bush
  122. The Association for the Prevention of Cruelty to Krill
  123. modest members society
  124. Repeal economic laws, force people to buy new cars and enforce tariffs against overseas tennis players
  125. Thoughts on how to kill dinosaurs
  126. Let's try the chill winds
  127. Taking the Right's road
  128. Bert Kelly: "I did not try often or hard enough"
  129. Bert Kelly "lacked ... guts and wisdom"
  130. A look at life without tariffs
  131. The Gospel according to Bert
  132. Tiny note on Bert Kelly's column in The Bulletin in 1985
  133. Why costs can't be guaranteed
  134. Hitting out with a halo
  135. Paying farmers not to grow crops will save on subsidies, revenge tariffs, etc
  136. "The Modest Farmer joins us" | "How The Modest Farmer came to be"
  137. Bert Kelly Destroys the Freeloading Justifies Government Argument
  138. Industrial Relations Club shovellers
  139. From Shann to Stone
  140. Government Intervention
    vs
    Government Interference
  141. A sojourn in the real world
  142. The tariff wind swings
  143. Bigger Cake = Bigger Slices
  144. Bert Kelly on the Political Process
  145. A charabanc called protection
  146. Taken for a ride - to nowhere
  147. Down hill, in circles, all the way
  148. Economic facts and figures are statistics who should speak out
  149. Any cons arguing small business bad but big government good?
  150. Relationships with the Liberal Party
  151. Tariffs = High Prices + World War
  152. Bert Kelly's Family History
  153. Bert Kelly's Pre-Parliament Life
  154. What the MP could say to the Bishop
  155. Why Bert Kelly was not even more publicly outspoken
  156. WEATHER IS USUALLY UNUSUAL
  157. How to stand aside when it's time to be counted
  158. How the Modest Member went back to being a Modest Farmer
  159. My pearls of wisdom were dull beyond belief
  160. Bert Kelly on Political Football
  161. Undigested morsels in Fraser spew
  162. Bert Kelly on LSD
  163. Bert Kelly reflects on the Australian car industry in 1992
  164. Bert Kelly wants reprinted Shann's Economic History of Australia
  165. If tariffs are opposed here then why not there?
  166. The emperor has no textiles, clothing and footwear sense
  167. Ross Gittins Wins Bert Kelly Award
  168. Interesting 1964 Bert Kelly speech: he says he is not a free trader and that he supports protection!
  169. This is the wall the Right built
  170. Tariff Protection in Australia (1970)
  171. Has Santa socked it to car makers?
  172. Is the Budget a cargo cult?
  173. Will we end up subsidising one another?
  174. Keeping the bucket of worms alive
  175. Can we get off the stomach-churning head-spinning tariff merry-go-round?
  176. Do we want our money to fly?
  177. Can a bear be sure of a feed?
  178. How to impress your MP -
    ambush him
  179. The time for being nice to our MPs has gone ...
  180. Don't feel sorry for him -
    hang on to his ear
  181. Trade wars can easily end up on a battlefield
  182. Tariffs Create Unemployment
  183. Bert Kelly recommends Ayn Rand
  184. Bert Kelly on Alf Rattigan's Industry Assistance: The Inside Story
  185. Bert Kelly's Satirical Prophecy: Minister for Meteorology (tick) and High Protectionist Policies to Result in War Yet Again (?)
  186. Bert Kelly in 1972 on Foreign Ownership of Australian Farmland and Warren Truss, Barnaby Joyce and Bill Heffernan in 2012
  187. Bert Kelly baits Welfare State Tiger
  188. Why does Govt wear two faces?
  189. Parliament a place for pragmatists
  190. Of Sugar Wells and Think-Tanks
  191. Bert Kelly: "I must take some of the blame"
  192. Bert Kelly on dumping duties
  193. The Govt's helping hand often hurts
  194. Unbuckling the hobbles on the motor industry
  195. A Modest Farmer looks at the Problems of Structural Change
  196. Government Fails Spectacularly
  197. Know your proper place if you want the quiet life
  198. Bert Kelly on political speech writers
  199. Having your cake and eating it
  200. Perish the thawed!
  201. Hooray for Northern Development!
  202. Politicians can resist everything except pressure
  203. The silly image of our MPs
  204. Bert Kelly Question Time highlights
  205. Modest Farmer sees his ideas take hold
  206. Should facts stand in the way of a good story?
  207. Fondling one another's glass haloes
  208. What is the sense in making the effort to look after yourself?
  209. Fred's Feeling: Counterpatriotic country contrarian
  210. Handouts for big boys only
  211. Mavis trying to buy a hand loom
  212. Bad news for bearers of bad news
  213. Is it time to get aboard the tariff band-waggon?
  214. Why farmers resent tariff protection for motor makers
  215. A sordid use of scare tactics
  216. Goods vs services
  217. Tariffs are hilariously counterproductive
  218. The dilemmas of Aboriginal Affairs
  219. Bert Kelly on decentralisation
  220. Inflation breeds moral decay
  221. Who envies equality?
  222. Growth – malignant or benign?
  223. Government wiser than Magna Carta
  224. Bert Kelly on looking to politicians for moral leadership
  225. Max Newton: Maverick in Exile
  226. Whitlam & co on the Dismissal
  227. 25% Tariff Cut
  228. Bert Kelly on pensions
  229. The backseat drivers of the Pilbara
  230. Mr Clunies-Ross of the Cocos Islands should rule Australia
  231. They get the wind up when it changes
  232. Why the Big Green Lie survives
  233. Ross McLean in 1982: "Malcolm! Why don't we try good government? It might be popular."
  234. Bert Kelly on the importance of exchange rate movements
  235. Bert Kelly shows how to attack
  236. Bert Kelly vs Bert Kelly vs Bert Kelly
  237. Industrial relations dinosaur, Bruce, chews his cud
  238. Hooray for "firmly entrenched"!
  239. Respect your dinosaurs
  240. What if something is "deeply ingrained" yet harmful?
  241. A case for ministerial inertia
  242. Why politicians don't like the truth
  243. Our great open spaces
  244. Ominous dark clouds are gathering
  245. Better to be popular than right
  246. Crying in the wilderness
  247. Ivory tower needs thumping
  248. Bert Kelly asks, "How can you believe in free enterprise and government intervention at the same time?"
  249. Politicians get undeserved praise, why not undeserved blame too?
  250. Feet in a bucket of champagne
  251. Rural Problems
  252. Health cover needs a $30 excess clause
  253. Unholy state of taxation
  254. Boring economics worth a smile
  255. The Libido for the Miserable
  256. Agricultural Development and Tariffs
  257. Fred's too poor to have principles
  258. Eccles Law of the constant wage share
  259. "He whom the gods would destroy ..."
  260. Low tariff torch burnt Eccles' fingers
  261. A cow of a car — with dual horns
  262. Tariffs: when to wean infant BHP?
  263. Keep any government as far as possible from farming
  264. The Playford charade is out of date
  265. Bert Kelly: the odd man out who's now in
  266. Dries must resist giving up struggle as going gets tough
  267. How a well meaning Government can be so stupid
  268. The icing on the economic cake
  269. Sir Roderick Carnegie's foreword to Bert Kelly's Economics Made Easy
  270. The Vale of Popularity and the Protection Procession
  271. Politics 101: Pay Lip Service to Capitalism and Shoot the Messenger
  272. Bert Kelly makes politicians eat their own words on tariffs, then says, "We cannot be blamed for treating the statements of our statesmen with cynical contempt"
  273. Bert Kelly on Free Enterprise
  274. Cartoons of protected industry, the welfare teat and the nanny state
  275. Bert Kelly on the theory of constant shares and the Fabian Society
  276. Bert Kelly vs Doug Anthony
  277. You're lucky if you escape being helped by government
  278. Bert Kelly on Small Farmers
  279. Bert Kelly on Apathy
  280. Bert Kelly in 1967 on "problems of government and things like that"
  281. The last "Dave's Diary"
  282. Bert Kelly vs The Australian on tariffs in 1977
  283. Bounties or Tariffs, Someone Pays
  284. Geriatric companies without a minder
  285. A free marketeer wary of free trade
  286. Nixon's puzzling profession of faith
  287. "Ford ... seems to spend more time bending its knees than its back"
  288. Clyde Cameron's weak ways with wise words
  289. Why flaunt what others flout?
  290. Bert Kelly yearns for Tim Flannery's powers of prediction
  291. Looking after yourself is silly
  292. Bert Kelly masterpiece on drought, fire, flood and other natural disaster relief schemes
  293. Government can take credit for our car industry mess
  294. Car makers want the 4wd driven deeper into tariff bog
  295. Why our MP is no longer prone to a good sob story
  296. Auto industry is in a straitjacket
  297. Bert Kelly on market predictions
  298. Why should dryland farmers subsidise irrigation farmers?
  299. How much should government decrease incentive for independence from government?
  300. Clarkson crowned Deputy Government Whip
  301. Bert Kelly to blame for soaring government healthcare costs
  302. 1959 return of Dave's Diary
  303. Bert Kelly in 1966 on developing northern Australia
  304. Successful government intervention can [sic] occur
  305. Vernon Report upholds Clarkson
  306. Quiet Man Makes An Impact
  307. Should it be compulsory to buy footwear and clothing?
  308. To save Australian clothing industry women must all wear same uniform
  309. Don't confuse plucking heart strings with plucking harp strings
  310. Speech only for public
  311. Catchy Tariff Circus Extravaganza
  312. Bert Kelly in 1985 on cars yet again
  313. Hurrah for the Gang of Five
  314. Thoughts on a verse about Balfour
  315. Bert Kelly pep talk to politicians
  316. Government intervention = Agony postponed but death brought nearer
  317. Recipe for disaster: Freeze!
  318. Recipe for government intervention: Gather winners and scatter losers
  319. Recipe for industry destruction: Blanket market signals
  320. Mavis writes!
  321. Bert Kelly's empiricism is not kneejerk reaction kind
  322. The $2,000 song of the shirt worker
  323. Subsiding only small farmers means subsiding the big banks
  324. Difficult to be fast on your feet when you've got your ear to the ground
  325. It would surprise people to see how sensible MPs behave if they think they are not being watched
  326. Bert Kelly on "this land of limitless resources" and "great open spaces"
  327. Growing bananas at the South Pole
  328. Car components tariff protection under fire
  329. Why carry a $300m car subsidy?
  330. Tariff feather beds for the foreign giants
  331. Bert Kelly says end compulsory voting to stop donkey vote
  332. Perhaps being smart and insured isn't all luck
  333. You gets your tariff, you pays a price
  334. More funds to train Olympians?
  335. Fire in their guts and wind in ours
  336. Should free universal healthcare include pets?
  337. Sound advice from a modest farmer
  338. A tottering monument to intervention
  339. Cunning meets wisdom
  340. Competition, Aussie-style: Who's the bigger parasite?
  341. Australians are proud patriotic parasites, says Bert Kelly
  342. Taxpayer-funded sport is cheating
  343. Being loved by all is not always a good thing
  344. Welfare State Destroys Society
  345. 1980 Bert Kelly feather bed series
  346. The White Mice Marketing Board
  347. Government intervention and advice can be harmful, even when right, even for those it tries to help
  348. One small step on the compulsory voting landmine
  349. The free & compulsory education sacred cows have no clothes
  350. Holding a loaded wallet to an economist's head
  351. Political No Man's Land
  352. Only blind greed demands both equality and prosperity
  353. A cow that sucks itself — that's us!
  354. Nip the bud of incentive; mock community spirit into submission
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