The untitled “Canberra Observed” column by “Cato” (aka Maxwell Newton) in The Australian Financial Review, August 4, 1960, p. 2.

As Mr Holt ponders the shape of his coming Budget, he might also do a little pondering about the social effects of the changes in the shape of Australian taxation under his Government.

These changes have been sufficiently radical to allow us to ask whether the “progressive” content of Australian taxation nowadays is really as significant as the public finance textbooks would have us believe.

In the last decade total taxation revenue has risen more or less in step with the rise in the gross national product.

Between 1949-50 and 1959-60, we can estimate, while the gross national product rose by about 140 per cent, the total of Commonwealth taxation revenue had also risen by about 140 per cent, probably a little more.

So much for the brave words of “free enterprise” on which the Menzies Government was first brought to power.

If anything, we are probably a rather more heavily taxed nation than we were then.

Now who is paying the taxes?

Seemingly, a greater proportion of Australian taxation is now paid by the mass of the people than it was in the heady days of 1949.

While individual income-tax revenue rose by about 125 per cent in the decade ended June, 1960, indirect taxation revenue rose by more than 150 per cent and company income taxation by about 170 per cent.

If we assume, as we should in the Australian context of a relatively high level of monopoly power in the hands of individual businesses and business groups, that rises in company taxation are largely passed on in higher prices, then it seems that the much sharper rises in indirect taxes and in company-taxes have led to the ordinary members of the community bearing a larger share of the overall tax burden.

The diminishing proportionate importance of individual income-taxes as a source of Commonwealth revenue has led to a reduction in the “progressive” context of the tax structure as a whole.

In this important sense, the tax changes under the Menzies Administration have had a regressive effect.

To put the point more clearly, whereas in 1949-50 total collections of indirect taxes (Customs, excise, sales and payroll taxes) were about 10 per cent greater than individual income-tax collections, in 1959-60 they were about 27 per cent greater.

This has not been the only change.

Growing sophistication in the art of tax avoidance and the effects of inflation have naturally favoured the holders of property and the self-employed.

The openings for tax avoidance by the conversion of income into capital gains have meant a further shift in the proportion of the tax burden against what might be called the ordinary wage-plug.

Is this the proper trend of affairs under a Government that goes by the title of “liberal”?