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1. “Getting off the welfare tiger could be dangerous,” The Australian Financial Review, December 15, 1978, p. 3.
2. “That welfare State tiger may eat us in the end,” The Australian Financial Review, July 13, 1979. p. 3.

1.
Bert Kelly, “Getting off the welfare tiger could be dangerous,” The Australian Financial Review, December 15, 1978, p. 3. Reprinted in Economics Made Easy (Adelaide: Brolga Books, 1982), pp. 136-38, as “Welfare State (2).”

When the parliamentary session is ended for the year, Eccles leaves the shelter of his ivory tower in Canberra to spend a week with Fred on his farm.

I would like him to stay at our place but Mavis cannot stand him because she thinks that it was Eccles’ insistence that I follow the straight and narrow path of economic rectitude that got me out of Parliament so that I have to wring a reluctant living from the land instead of lording it around as a member of Parliament.

So I went across to Fred’s place to get the latest Canberra gossip from Eccles.

I was not surprised to see Eccles looking miserable.

Economists are taught at the university to wear a hangdog look and Eccles learnt the lesson quicker than most.

As I was eager to catch up with the latest Canberra scandal, such as who was fighting whom, when was the next Cabinet reshuffle going to be, and so on, I inquired if it was the behaviour of members of Parliament that was making him sad. He replied:

No, they are much the same as when you were there.

I have long since given up hope that democracy is going to be saved by the sudden emergence of a new and superior breed of politician.

I know now that we will have to manage with the sort we have. No, it isn’t the politicians that are worrying me at the moment but the economic rocks I see looming.

This did not surprise me because Eccles has been prophesying economic ruin ever since I have known him.

But this time he was worrying about our long-term future rather than what will happen next year.

“We will limp along for a while yet,” he admitted gloomily, “but this Welfare State tiger will eat us in the end if we do not get off it almost immediately.”

Then he brought out the Budget papers, which he always carries with him, which show where most of our Commonwealth money goes.

Most of our money is spent on defence (8.9 per cent), the welfare  group (50.4 per cent) and payments to the States (22.1 per cent), much of which is spent on welfare.

That makes 81.4 per cent. To that must be added 6.2 per cent as interest to public debt, making a total of 87.6 per cent, leaving only 12.4 per cent in the remainder column, to run the Government departments such as industrial relations, immigration, transport, treasury and so on.

The welfare component of the Budget is now a considerable burden but what is making Eccles go off his feed is that the position is going to get worse.

The chief reason for this is that the percentage of our population of pensionable age will increase and so the demand for more social services will increase in the future.

The percentage is 11.34 now and it is estimated to rise to 12.25 per cent by 1986.

So the welfare vote will clearly expand even if we do not expand the welfare services.

But the demand for improved services will grow because so many of them are thought to be costless.

The way the health costs have escalated has shown us that. Goods and services we think we get for nothing we use wastefully.

And we have trained our people to depend on the Government and we justify this dependence by claiming that we have been paying high taxes in order to pay the pensions to others in the past, so now it is our turn to be looked after.

So unless we are prepared to take a lot of unpopular decisions, the proportion of future budgets spent on welfare will increase alarmingly and this what is making Eccles so sad.

I suppose we could cut the defence vote but that would be reckless indeed with the world in the mess it is in.

And the 6.2 per cent interest on public debt is likely to increase, with deficit budgeting so common.

We could cut payments to the States but this would be unpopular because the sympathy of the ordinary citizen is always on the side of his State and against the big, bad Commonwealth.

There is, of course, another alternative to cutting the welfare vote and that is increasing taxation.

But this too in unpopular.

And we are already rightly committed to cutting taxes because we are all too well aware that even the present rate of taxation is destroying the incentive of people to work and invest.

I can see then why Eccles is so sad about the future.

Fred and I have learnt the hard way that it is when you are leaving a rough horse that things get nasty; Eccles seems to think that getting off the welfare tiger may be even more dangerous. Yet if we don’t get off him it may well be worse.

He may indeed eat us.

2.
Bert Kelly, “That welfare State tiger may eat us in the end,”
The Australian Financial Review, July 13, 1979. p. 3.

Towards the end of last year Eccles was moaning about the devastating effects of the welfare State.

His message was that if we didn’t get off the welfare State tiger it would eat us in the end.

I will give his figures again: Defence 8.9 per cent, the welfare group 50.4 per cent, payments to the States 22.1 per cent and interest in public debt 6.1 per cent. This makes 87 per cent of the Commonwealth Budget, so clearly, if none of these is to be cut, there will be precious little room for much economic manoeuvring in future.

However, it is not the economic effects of the welfare State that concern me most; far more important to me is the damage done to the spirit of self-reliance of which we used to be so proud.

We have now become like the bears at Yellowstone Park who become so dependent on handouts from passing tourists during spring, summer and autumn, that they are said to have died in large numbers when the stream of tourists dropped to a trickle in the winter.

But what is happening to us is better put by Professor Hartwell in the book The Coming Confrontation published by the Institute of Economic Affairs in Britain. I quote from page 119:

In Britain the responsibilities of government are continually expanding while those of the individual are continually contracting.

There has been, in consequence, a retreat from freedom: as the individual’s responsibilities are taken from him, so his ability and willingness to accept responsibility decline, and government has to take over even more responsibilities.

As government grows more active, the individual becomes more passive and intervention becomes an imperative.

The process is a vicious circle, a responsibility or public trap that has led to the almost universal acceptance of a substantial and increasing role for the State in all our affairs.

Indeed, at a certain point the retreat from freedom becomes a fear of freedom, an avoidance of responsibility, a feeling of helplessness in the face of needs and problems, a willing dependency on, and a fearful servility towards, government and its agencies.

If you want to see examples of such servility at close quarters you should see the representatives of the various industry pressure groups fawning on Ministers [as though] they are [a] government cow.

Sometimes, of course, the fawning turns to blackmail, particularly if there is an election looming.

These groups will parade, with fitting eloquence, their belief that free enterprise is the best philosophy for Australia in general, but you should see them when they are after something for themselves in particular.

Professor Hartwell goes on:

Most increases in government have been achieved by offering inducements, almost invariably economic, and most of such increases have been difficult, if not impossible, to reverse: hence they are aptly described as traps.

The combined effect of such traps has been to produce the “they” complex, the prevailing attitude of mind which, when faced with a problem, expresses itself in the effortless phrase, “they should do something about it.”

If you do not admit that “they” are expected to fix almost everything these days, then you have not been to many political meetings lately.

I guess that Labor Party meetings spend most of their time begging or demanding that the Government “they” kiss almost everything better because this is their avowed philosophy.

But at Liberal meetings we spend most of our working time asking for some kind of government intervention or other.

It is true that we usually begin our meetings by making ostentatious obeisance at the private enterprise shrine but we seldom allow these formalities to distract us from our stern determination to buy popularity by sacrificing this principle on the altar of political power.

I have no inside information as to how the Country Party meetings overcome any philosophical problems of this nature they may meet.

But I have a shrewd idea that they would not waste too much time and effort worrying about such niceties; if the government cow was in the bail, they would just grab a big bucket and go to it.

They are a bit like Ginger, who when the retreat was sounded, said he didn’t want to be hindered by any plurry horse.

(in order of appearance on Economics.org.au)
  1. Bert Kelly on his journalism
  2. Move for a body of Modest Members
  3. Modest Members Association
  4. Bert Kelly's Maiden Parliamentary Speech
  5. Government Intervention
  6. 1976 Monday Conference transcript featuring Bert Kelly
  7. Bert Kelly, Hayek and Mencken on the virtues of farmers
  8. Sound economics calls for quiet from government
  9. Petrol for Farmers
  10. Some Sacred Cows
  11. Experiences in Parliament
  12. Spending your Money
  13. Is Taxmania a politician fetish?
  14. How Bert Kelly repays a free feed
  15. Modest column #898
  16. Chicken-hearted feathered friends strange bedfellows on a feather bed?
  17. Who needs literary licence?
  18. A touch of Fred's anarchy
  19. Helping the farmers help themselves
  20. Standing on the shoulders of the downtrodden
  21. Supply and Demand
  22. Bert Kelly responds to claims he is arrogant and uncredentialed
  23. Politics: it's a very confusing business
  24. The best featherbeds run on rails
  25. Bert Kelly on Disaster Relief
  26. Bert Kelly Wants to Secede
  27. Blinded by their tears
  28. Anti-freedom pro-tobacco industry lobby harmed Australia
  29. Under Labor, is working hard foolish?
  30. An Idiot's Guide to Interventionism
  31. Is free healthcare worthless?
  32. Can government kiss it better?
  33. Bert Kelly Destroys the Side Benefits Argument for Government
  34. Bert Kelly gets his head around big-headed bird-brained politics
  35. First Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  36. Second Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  37. Third Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  38. Fourth Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  39. Fifth Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  40. Sixth Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  41. Bert Kelly on the 2011 Budget and Australia's Pathetic Journalists and Politicians
  42. Bert Kelly, Bastard or Simple Sod?
  43. Liberal Backbencher Hits Govt. Over Import Restrictions
  44. Bert Kelly feels a dam coming on at each election
  45. Bert Kelly Enters Parliament
  46. Why take in one another's washing?
  47. Bert Kelly breaks the law, disrespects government and enjoys it
  48. Gillard's galley-powered waterskiing
  49. State Premiers are always asking for more taxing powers
  50. Can price control really work?
  51. Should we put up with socialism?
  52. We're quick to get sick of socialism
  53. Time the protection racket ended
  54. Can't pull the wool over Farmer Fred
  55. People not Politics
  56. Bert Kelly admits he should have had less faith in politicians
  57. The inspirational incentivising Dear Leader Gough Whitlam
  58. Labor: a girl who couldn't say no
  59. Why leading businessmen carry black briefcases
  60. Ludwig von Mises on page 3 of AFR
  61. Bert Kelly's empowering feminism
  62. Mavis wants the Modest Member to dedicate his book to her
  63. What if the whole country is swindled?
  64. Moss Cass: "Flood plains are for floods"
  65. A worm's eye view
  66. Eccles returns to haunt us
  67. How to grip a politician's ear
  68. It's hard to digest this economic cake
  69. Time to Butcher "Aussie Beef"
  70. Cold water on government-instigated irrigation schemes
  71. Hooray for Ord River Dam!
  72. Tariffs paid by exporters
  73. The problem of principles v popularity
  74. If you support State Quotas, where will your logic take you?
  75. Against guidance by government
  76. A socialist in Liberal clothing
  77. Never ask the government to help
  78. Don't listen to economists!
  79. Whitlam's July 1973 25% tariff cut
  80. Bert Kelly on Import Quotas
  81. Good directions when government backseat driving, like reversing down wrong side of road
  82. Barriers to imports are barriers to exports
  83. Bert Kelly reviews The War Diaries of Weary Dunlop
  84. Bert Kelly reviews We Were There
  85. Tariffs get the fork-tongue treatment
  86. Bert Kelly reduces government to its absurdities
  87. Politician sacrifices his ... honesty
  88. It's all a matter of principle
  89. Bert Kelly Destroys the Infant Industry Argument
  90. Bert Kelly Untangles Tariff Torment
  91. Bert Kelly resorts to prayer
  92. Eccles keeps our nose hard down on the tariff grindstone
  93. "Don't you believe in protecting us against imports from cheap labour countries?"
  94. Even if lucky, we needn't be stupid
  95. Great "freedom of choice" mystery
  96. Small government's growth problem
  97. I like my kind acts to get a mention in the press
  98. A Modest Member rakes the embers
  99. Tariffs Introduced
  100. More About Tariffs
  101. Sacred cow kicker into print
  102. Bert Kelly's 1984 two-article quote-collection on Aboriginal policies
  103. Modest Member must not give up
  104. Traditional Wheat Farming is Our Birthright and Heritage and Must be Protected!
  105. Tariff-cut nonsense lives on
  106. Bert Kelly brilliantly defends "theoretical academics"
  107. The high cost of protection
  108. Generosity creates problems
  109. The Society of Modest Members
  110. John Hyde's illogical, soft, complicated, unfocussed and unsuccessful attempt to communicate why he defends markets
  111. Modesty ablaze
  112. Case for ministers staying home
  113. The unusual self-evident simplicity of the Modest Members Society
  114. Animal lib the new scourge of the bush
  115. The Association for the Prevention of Cruelty to Krill
  116. modest members society
  117. Repeal economic laws, force people to buy new cars and enforce tariffs against overseas tennis players
  118. Thoughts on how to kill dinosaurs
  119. Let's try the chill winds
  120. Taking the Right's road
  121. Bert Kelly: "I did not try often or hard enough"
  122. Bert Kelly "lacked ... guts and wisdom"
  123. A look at life without tariffs
  124. The Gospel according to Bert
  125. Tiny note on Bert Kelly's column in The Bulletin in 1985
  126. Why costs can't be guaranteed
  127. Hitting out with a halo
  128. Paying farmers not to grow crops will save on subsidies, revenge tariffs, etc
  129. "The Modest Farmer joins us" | "How The Modest Farmer came to be"
  130. Bert Kelly Destroys the Freeloading Justifies Government Argument
  131. Industrial Relations Club shovellers
  132. From Shann to Stone
  133. Government Intervention
    vs
    Government Interference
  134. A sojourn in the real world
  135. The tariff wind swings
  136. Bigger Cake = Bigger Slices
  137. Bert Kelly on the Political Process
  138. A charabanc called protection
  139. Taken for a ride - to nowhere
  140. Down hill, in circles, all the way
  141. Relationships with the Liberal Party
  142. Tariffs = High Prices + World War
  143. Bert Kelly's Family History
  144. Bert Kelly's Pre-Parliament Life
  145. What the MP could say to the Bishop
  146. Why Bert Kelly was not even more publicly outspoken
  147. WEATHER IS USUALLY UNUSUAL
  148. How to stand aside when it's time to be counted
  149. How the Modest Member went back to being a Modest Farmer
  150. My pearls of wisdom were dull beyond belief
  151. Bert Kelly on Political Football
  152. Undigested morsels in Fraser spew
  153. Bert Kelly on LSD
  154. Bert Kelly reflects on the Australian car industry in 1992
  155. Bert Kelly wants reprinted Shann's Economic History of Australia
  156. If tariffs are opposed here then why not there?
  157. The emperor has no textiles, clothing and footwear sense
  158. Ross Gittins Wins Bert Kelly Award
  159. Interesting 1964 Bert Kelly speech: he says he is not a free trader and that he supports protection!
  160. This is the wall the Right built
  161. Tariff Protection in Australia (1970)
  162. Has Santa socked it to car makers?
  163. Is the Budget a cargo cult?
  164. Will we end up subsidising one another?
  165. Keeping the bucket of worms alive
  166. Can we get off the stomach-churning head-spinning tariff merry-go-round?
  167. Do we want our money to fly?
  168. Can a bear be sure of a feed?
  169. How to impress your MP -
    ambush him
  170. The time for being nice to our MPs has gone ...
  171. Don't feel sorry for him -
    hang on to his ear
  172. Trade wars can easily end up on a battlefield
  173. Tariffs Create Unemployment
  174. Bert Kelly recommends Ayn Rand
  175. Bert Kelly on Alf Rattigan's Industry Assistance: The Inside Story
  176. Bert Kelly's Satirical Prophecy: Minister for Meteorology (tick) and High Protectionist Policies to Result in War Yet Again (?)
  177. Bert Kelly in 1972 on Foreign Ownership of Australian Farmland and Warren Truss, Barnaby Joyce and Bill Heffernan in 2012
  178. Bert Kelly baits Welfare State Tiger
  179. Why does Govt wear two faces?
  180. Parliament a place for pragmatists
  181. Of Sugar Wells and Think-Tanks
  182. Bert Kelly: "I must take some of the blame"
  183. Bert Kelly on dumping duties
  184. The Govt's helping hand often hurts
  185. Unbuckling the hobbles on the motor industry
  186. A Modest Farmer looks at the Problems of Structural Change
  187. Government Fails Spectacularly
  188. Know your proper place if you want the quiet life
  189. Bert Kelly on political speech writers
  190. Having your cake and eating it
  191. Perish the thawed!
  192. Hooray for Northern Development!
  193. The silly image of our MPs
  194. Bert Kelly Question Time highlights
  195. Modest Farmer sees his ideas take hold
  196. Should facts stand in the way of a good story?
  197. Fondling one another's glass haloes
  198. What is the sense in making the effort to look after yourself?
  199. Fred's Feeling: Counterpatriotic country contrarian
  200. Handouts for big boys only
  201. Mavis trying to buy a hand loom
  202. Bad news for bearers of bad news
  203. Is it time to get aboard the tariff band-waggon?
  204. Why farmers resent tariff protection for motor makers
  205. A sordid use of scare tactics
  206. Goods vs services
  207. Tariffs are hilariously counterproductive
  208. Bert Kelly on decentralisation
  209. Inflation breeds moral decay
  210. Who envies equality?
  211. Growth – malignant or benign?
  212. Government wiser than Magna Carta
  213. Bert Kelly on looking to politicians for moral leadership
  214. Max Newton: Maverick in Exile
  215. Whitlam & co on the Dismissal
  216. 25% Tariff Cut
  217. Bert Kelly on pensions
  218. Mr Clunies-Ross of the Cocos Islands should rule Australia
  219. They get the wind up when it changes
  220. Why the Big Green Lie survives
  221. Ross McLean in 1982: "Malcolm! Why don't we try good government? It might be popular."
  222. Bert Kelly on the importance of exchange rate movements
  223. Bert Kelly shows how to attack
  224. Bert Kelly vs Bert Kelly vs Bert Kelly
  225. Industrial relations dinosaur, Bruce, chews his cud
  226. Hooray for "firmly entrenched"!
  227. Respect your dinosaurs
  228. What if something is "deeply ingrained" yet harmful?
  229. A case for ministerial inertia
  230. Why politicians don't like the truth
  231. Our great open spaces
  232. Ominous dark clouds are gathering
  233. Better to be popular than right
  234. Crying in the wilderness
  235. Ivory tower needs thumping
  236. Bert Kelly asks, "How can you believe in free enterprise and government intervention at the same time?"
  237. Politicians get undeserved praise, why not undeserved blame too?
  238. Feet in a bucket of champagne
  239. Rural Problems
  240. Health cover needs a $30 excess clause
  241. Unholy state of taxation
  242. Boring economics worth a smile
  243. The Libido for the Miserable
  244. Agricultural Development and Tariffs
  245. Fred's too poor to have principles
  246. Eccles Law of the constant wage share
  247. "He whom the gods would destroy ..."
  248. Tariffs: when to wean infant BHP?
  249. Keep any government as far as possible from farming
  250. The Playford charade is out of date
  251. Bert Kelly: the odd man out who's now in
  252. Dries must resist giving up struggle as going gets tough
  253. How a well meaning Government can be so stupid
  254. The icing on the economic cake
  255. Sir Roderick Carnegie's foreword to Bert Kelly's Economics Made Easy
  256. The Vale of Popularity and the Protection Procession
  257. Politics 101: Pay Lip Service to Capitalism and Shoot the Messenger
  258. Bert Kelly makes politicians eat their own words on tariffs, then says, "We cannot be blamed for treating the statements of our statesmen with cynical contempt"
  259. Bert Kelly on Free Enterprise
  260. Cartoons of protected industry, the welfare teat and the nanny state
  261. Bert Kelly on the theory of constant shares and the Fabian Society
  262. Bert Kelly vs Doug Anthony
  263. You're lucky if you escape being helped by government
  264. Bert Kelly on Small Farmers
  265. Bert Kelly on Apathy
  266. Bert Kelly in 1967 on "problems of government and things like that"
  267. The last "Dave's Diary"
  268. Bert Kelly vs The Australian on tariffs in 1977
  269. Bounties or Tariffs, Someone Pays
  270. Geriatric companies without a minder
  271. A free marketeer wary of free trade
  272. Nixon's puzzling profession of faith
  273. "Ford ... seems to spend more time bending its knees than its back"
  274. Clyde Cameron's weak ways with wise words
  275. Why flaunt what others flout?
  276. Bert Kelly yearns for Tim Flannery's powers of prediction
  277. Looking after yourself is silly
  278. Bert Kelly masterpiece on drought, fire, flood and other natural disaster relief schemes
  279. Government can take credit for our car industry mess
  280. Car makers want the 4wd driven deeper into tariff bog
  281. Why our MP is no longer prone to a good sob story
  282. Auto industry is in a straitjacket
  283. Bert Kelly on market predictions
  284. Why should dryland farmers subsidise irrigation farmers?
  285. How much should government decrease incentive for independence from government?
  286. Clarkson crowned Deputy Government Whip
  287. Bert Kelly to blame for soaring government healthcare costs
  288. 1959 return of Dave's Diary
  289. Bert Kelly in 1966 on developing northern Australia
  290. Successful government intervention can [sic] occur
  291. Vernon Report upholds Clarkson
  292. Quiet Man Makes An Impact
  293. Should it be compulsory to buy footwear and clothing?
  294. To save Australian clothing industry women must all wear same uniform
  295. Don't confuse plucking heart strings with plucking harp strings
  296. Speech only for public
  297. Catchy Tariff Circus Extravaganza
  298. Bert Kelly in 1985 on cars yet again
  299. Hurrah for the Gang of Five
  300. Thoughts on a verse about Balfour
  301. Bert Kelly pep talk to politicians
  302. Government intervention = Agony postponed but death brought nearer
  303. Recipe for disaster: Freeze!
  304. Recipe for government intervention: Gather winners and scatter losers
  305. Recipe for industry destruction: Blanket market signals
  306. Mavis writes!
  307. Bert Kelly's empiricism is not kneejerk reaction kind
  308. The $2,000 song of the shirt worker
  309. Subsiding only small farmers means subsiding the big banks
  310. Difficult to be fast on your feet when you've got your ear to the ground
  311. It would surprise people to see how sensible MPs behave if they think they are not being watched
  312. Bert Kelly on "this land of limitless resources" and "great open spaces"
  313. Growing bananas at the South Pole
  314. Car components tariff protection under fire
  315. Why carry a $300m car subsidy?
  316. Tariff feather beds for the foreign giants
  317. Bert Kelly says end compulsory voting to stop donkey vote
  318. Perhaps being smart and insured isn't all luck
  319. You gets your tariff, you pays a price
  320. More funds to train Olympians?
  321. Fire in their guts and wind in ours
  322. Should free universal healthcare include pets?
  323. Sound advice from a modest farmer
  324. A tottering monument to intervention
  325. Cunning meets wisdom
  326. Competition, Aussie-style: Who's the bigger parasite?
  327. Australians are proud patriotic parasites, says Bert Kelly
  328. Taxpayer-funded sport is cheating
  329. Being loved by all is not always a good thing
  330. Welfare State Destroys Society
  331. 1980 Bert Kelly feather bed series
  332. The White Mice Marketing Board
  333. Government intervention and advice can be harmful, even when right, even for those it tries to help
  334. One small step on the compulsory voting landmine
  335. The free & compulsory education sacred cows have no clothes
  336. Holding a loaded wallet to an economist's head
  337. Political No Man's Land
  338. Only blind greed demands both equality and prosperity
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