Other entries featuring Bert Kelly»

Bert Kelly, “The mixture as before — in capitals …,” The Australian Financial Review, January 28, 1977, p. 3.

The article that follows first appeared in September, 1972, and is unaltered except that two paragraphs have been deleted to make room for this explanation, but the sense has not been changed.

After you had read it, you will realise how things alter on the farming front and how dangerous it is to speak authoritatively about the future in farming.

After all, your Modest Member lives near the centre of things and has access to all the best advice in Canberra, but look at the mistakes I made!

It is dangerous for a Government to tell farmers what to grow because it will almost always be wrong.

Remember what happened when we were told to grow more wheat in the 1930s?

Yet well-meaning, foolish people are always asking us to do that kind of thing, but now they call it “indicative planning.”

Now follows what I wrote in September, 1972:

IN FEBRUARY (1972) AT THE OUTLOOK CONFERENCE IN CANBERRA, MR VINES, THE ACTING CHAIRMAN OF THE WOOL COMMISSION SAID: “FOR WOOL, THE PRESENT AVERAGE DEFICIENCY PAYMENT OF AROUND 80C PER KILO MAY PROVIDE A CEILING TO CURRENT PRICE TRENDS.” ALMOST IMMEDIATELY THE PRICE OF WOOL STARTED TO RISE AND IS NOW ABOUT 100C A KILO.

I DO NOT CRITICISE MR VINES. I THINK THAT HE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO BE RIGHT ABOUT THE FUTURE PRICE OF WOOL THAN ALMOST ANYONE I KNOW. YET HE IS WRONG.

ONE OF THE REASONS WHY I AM MODEST IS THAT FRED KEEPS A CATALOGUE OF MY PAST MISTAKES. MPs HAVE A TENDENCY TO SKATE QUICKLY ROUND OUR PAST ERRORS AND DROWN THEM IN A STREAM OF ELOQUENCE. SO FRED KEEPS A RECORD OF WHERE I HAVE ERRED AND WHEN I SPOKE DISPARAGINGLY OF MR VINES HE TROTTED OUT THIS CATALOGUE. THIS MADE ME SAD.

AT THE TOP OF THE LOST WAS BUTTER. A FEW YEARS AGO I WAS GRIMLY WARNING DAIRY FARMERS THAT THEY HAD NO REASONABLY CHANCE OF SELLING BUTTER IN THE FUTURE. EVER SINCE THEN, THE WORLD HAS BEEN CRYING OUT FOR IT.

NOT LONG AGO I WAS WARNING MY MEAT PRODUCERS THAT THEY WERE TREMBLING ON THE VERGE OF OVER-PRODUCTION. EVEN SINCE THEN THE WORLD HAS BEEN BEGGING FOR MORE MEAT.

I DO NOT SEE WHY I SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GRIM RECITAL. I CAN SUM UP MY EXPERIENCE IN THIS MATTER BY SAYING THAT FRED, AND MY NEIGHBOURS, WATCH WHAT I DO WITH CLOSE ATTENTION; WHEN I BUY CATTLE, THEY SELL. THEY HAVE FOUND FROM LONG EXPERIENCE THAT I AM USUALLY WRONG. AND I’M NOT ALONE IN THIS. THE ONLY WAY TO AVOID MISTAKES WHEN PROPHESYING IS NOT TO PROPHESY.

NOW THE REASON WHY I AM BARING MY BREAST IS NOT ONLY TO KEEP MYSELF MODEST, BUT TO RAM HOME THE FACT THAT IT IS DANGEROUS TO DO WHAT THE LABOR PARTY THEORISTS ARE ALWAYS ADVISING, ie, TO MAKE REALISTIC ESTIMATES OF THE DEMAND SITUATION FOR A RURAL PRODUCT AND THEN ADJUST THE SUPPLY TO THE DEMAND.

ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT, IF A CIVIL SERVANT HAD THE ABILITY TO DO THIS, TO CORRECTLY FORESEE THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND SITUATION FOR ANY PRODUCT, HE WOULD NOT BE WORKING FOR THE GOVERNMENT FOR LONG. HE WOULD SHORTLY BE SITTING IN THE SOUTH OF FRANCE WITH HIS FEET IN A BUCKET OF CHAMPAGNE!

THE MAIN REASON FOR THE UNRELIABILITY OF THE WISEST PROPHESIES IS THAT THE WEATHER, IN AUSTRALIA OR ELSEWHERE, USUALLY DOES THE DIRTY ON US. I USED TO KEEP A FARM DIARY AND AT THE END OF THE YEAR I SUMMARISED THE YEAR’S EVENTS. IT ALWAYS BEGAN BY DESCRIBING THE WEATHER.

FREQUENTLY THERE APPEARED THIS COMMENT: “THIS YEAR THE WEATHER, WAS, AS USUAL, UNUSUAL.” AND EVIDENTLY THE WEATHER ROUND THE WORLD WORKS ON THE SAME PRINCIPLE. IT’S USUALLY UNUSUAL. IF YOU ONLY KNEW IN WHICH WAY IT WAS GOING TO BE UNUSUAL, YOU COULD MAKE RELIABLE ESTIMATES OF WHAT THE MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO BE FOR ANY PRODUCT.

I HAVE AN OLD FARMER FRIEND WHO OFTEN GAVE ME THIS SOUND ADVICE: “WHEN EVERYONE ELSE RUNS, MY BOY, YOU WALK. AND WHEN THEY WALK, YOU OFF LIKE BLAZES! I WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH WEALTHIER NOW IF I HAD LISTENED TO HIM INSTEAD OF CHARGING OFF AFTER EACH NEW HARE STARTED UP BY WELL-MEANING THEORISTS WHO PROPHESIED ABOUT THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR A PRODUCT.

THE ONLY THING YOU KNOW FOR CERTAIN, WHEN FORETELLING THE DEMAND FOR PRIMARY PRODUCTS, IS THAT YOU ARE CERTAIN TO BE WRONG. SOMETIMES, WITH LUCK, ONLY A LITTLE BIT WRONG, BUT FAR TOO OFTEN YOU WILL, LIKE ME, BE SERIOUSLY WRONG.

FRED AND HIS FELLOW-FARMERS WILL BLAME YOU FOR WHATEVER HAPPENS. IT IS BEST FOR ALL CONCERNED TO LEARN FROM THE PAST, EXAMINE THE PRESENT, BUT NOT PUBLICLY PROPHESY ABOUT THE FUTURE. THERE IS NO WISDOM IN IT, OR VOTES EITHER.

You see what I mean? That’s what I said in 1972. The only difference is now I would print it in capital letters.

(in order of appearance on Economics.org.au)
  1. Bert Kelly on Journalism
  2. Move for a body of Modest Members
  3. Modest Members Association
  4. Bert Kelly's Maiden Parliamentary Speech
  5. Government Intervention
  6. 1976 Monday Conference transcript featuring Bert Kelly
  7. Petrol for Farmers
  8. Some Sacred Cows
  9. Experiences in Parliament
  10. Spending your Money
  11. Who needs literary licence?
  12. A touch of Fred's anarchy
  13. Supply and Demand
  14. Bert Kelly on Disaster Relief
  15. Bert Kelly Wants to Secede
  16. Under Labor, is working hard foolish?
  17. An Idiot's Guide to Interventionism
  18. Bert Kelly Destroys the Side Benefits Argument for Government
  19. Bert Kelly gets his head around big-headed bird-brained politics
  20. First Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  21. Second Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  22. Third Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  23. Fourth Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  24. Fifth Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  25. Sixth Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  26. Bert Kelly on the 2011 Budget and Australia's Pathetic Journalists and Politicians
  27. Bert Kelly, Bastard or Simple Sod?
  28. Liberal Backbencher Hits Govt. Over Import Restrictions
  29. Bert Kelly feels a dam coming on at each election
  30. Bert Kelly Enters Parliament
  31. Why take in one another's washing?
  32. Bert Kelly breaks the law, disrespects government and enjoys it
  33. Gillard's galley-powered waterskiing
  34. Can price control really work?
  35. Should we put up with socialism?
  36. We're quick to get sick of socialism
  37. Time the protection racket ended
  38. Can't pull the wool over Farmer Fred
  39. People not Politics
  40. Bert Kelly admits he should have had less faith in politicians
  41. Labor: a girl who couldn't say no
  42. Why leading businessmen carry black briefcases
  43. Ludwig von Mises on page 3 of AFR
  44. Mavis wants the Modest Member to dedicate his book to her
  45. Time to Butcher "Aussie Beef"
  46. Bert Kelly reviews The War Diaries of Weary Dunlop
  47. Bert Kelly reviews We Were There
  48. Tariffs get the fork-tongue treatment
  49. Bert Kelly reduces government to its absurdities
  50. Politician sacrifices his ... honesty
  51. It's all a matter of principle
  52. Bert Kelly Destroys the Infant Industry Argument
  53. Bert Kelly Untangles Tariff Torment
  54. Bert Kelly resorts to prayer
  55. Eccles keeps our nose hard down on the tariff grindstone
  56. "Don't you believe in protecting us against imports from cheap labour countries?"
  57. Even if lucky, we needn't be stupid
  58. Great "freedom of choice" mystery
  59. Small government's growth problem
  60. Tariffs Introduced
  61. More About Tariffs
  62. Sacred cow kicker into print
  63. Modest Member must not give up
  64. Traditional Wheat Farming is Our Birthright and Heritage and Must be Protected!
  65. Bert Kelly brilliantly defends "theoretical academics"
  66. The Society of Modest Members
  67. John Hyde's illogical, soft, complicated, unfocussed and unsuccessful attempt to communicate why he defends markets
  68. Modesty ablaze
  69. Case for ministers staying home
  70. The unusual self-evident simplicity of the Modest Members Society
  71. Animal lib the new scourge of the bush
  72. The Association for the Prevention of Cruelty to Krill
  73. Repeal economic laws, force people to buy new cars and enforce tariffs against overseas tennis players
  74. Thoughts on how to kill dinosaurs
  75. Let's try the chill winds
  76. Taking the Right's road
  77. Bert Kelly: "I did not try often or hard enough"
  78. Bert Kelly "lacked ... guts and wisdom"
  79. A look at life without tariffs
  80. The Gospel according to Bert
  81. Tiny note on Bert Kelly's column in The Bulletin in 1985
  82. Why costs can't be guaranteed
  83. Hitting out with a halo
  84. Paying farmers not to grow crops will save on subsidies, revenge tariffs, etc
  85. "The Modest Farmer joins us" | "How The Modest Farmer came to be"
  86. Bert Kelly Destroys the Freeloading Justifies Government Argument
  87. Government Intervention
    vs
    Government Interference
  88. Bigger Cake = Bigger Slices
  89. Bert Kelly on the Political Process
  90. Charabanc: Part 1
  91. Charabanc: Part 2
  92. Charabanc: Part 3
  93. Relationships with the Liberal Party
  94. Tariffs = High Prices + World War
  95. Bert Kelly's Family History
  96. Bert Kelly's Pre-Parliament Life
  97. Why Bert Kelly was not even more publicly outspoken
  98. WEATHER IS USUALLY UNUSUAL
  99. How to stand aside when it's time to be counted
  100. How the Modest Member went back to being a Modest Farmer
  101. My pearls of wisdom were dull beyond belief
  102. Bert Kelly on Political Football
  103. Ross Gittins Wins Bert Kelly Award
  104. Interesting 1964 Bert Kelly speech: he says he is not a free trader and that he supports protection!
  105. This is the wall the Right built
  106. Has Santa socked it to car makers?
  107. Is the Budget a cargo cult?
  108. Will we end up subsidising one another?
  109. Do we want our money to fly?
  110. Can a bear be sure of a feed?
  111. How to impress your MP -
    ambush him
  112. The time for being nice to our MPs has gone ...
  113. Don't feel sorry for him -
    hang on to his ear
  114. Trade wars can easily end up on a battlefield
  115. Tariffs Create Unemployment
  116. Bert Kelly recommends Ayn Rand
  117. Bert Kelly's Satirical Prophecy: Minister for Meteorology (tick) and High Protectionist Policies to Result in War Yet Again (?)
  118. Bert Kelly in 1972 on Foreign Ownership of Australian Farmland and Warren Truss, Barnaby Joyce and Bill Heffernan in 2012
  119. Parliament a place for pragmatists
  120. Of Sugar Wells and Think-Tanks
  121. Bert Kelly: "I must take some of the blame"
  122. A Modest Farmer looks at the Problems of Structural Change
  123. Government Fails Spectacularly
  124. Know your proper place if you want the quiet life
  125. Bert Kelly on political speech writers
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