Other entries featuring Bert Kelly»

Bert Kelly, 18 June 1971. Economics Made Easy (Adelaide: Brolga Books, 1982), pp. 5-7, as “Supply and Demand (1).”

With so many of our rural products experiencing market difficulties it has become the conventional wisdom to say that someone ought to make a realistic estimate of the future demand for a product and then the supply should be adjusted to meet this demand.

This sounds so sensible and so simple that you can’t help wondering why it hasn’t been done that way ever since Adam started farming. Let’s take pigs, for example. The market for pigs is fairly good now; there is plenty of surplus feed grain around, and many farmers are anxiously looking round for profitable sidelines. And pigs have the happy knack of being able to rapidly increase in numbers. So things look all set for a rapid increase in the supply of pig meat.

Now sensible people in the industry, seeing this position looming, say to themselves, “It is silly to allow supply to rise quicker than demand, with the result that the pig industry will get into the same mess as other rural industries. For everyone’s sake we will make an estimate of demand and limit production accordingly.”

When I first heard this responsible doctrine expounded I realised that here was an opportunity to not only do good for my farming electors, but also to pick up a few votes in the process. It is not often, since Eccles came on the scene, that I have been able to do both things at once, so I was eager to begin.

It was only after Eccles had made me really think about what was involved that I started to have second thoughts. The first part of the problem, and the easiest, is estimating demand. It is true that the consumption of pig meat fluctuates from year to year. For instance, the figures for each year between 1966 and 1969 are 107,000; 112,000; 119,000; and 130,000 tons respectively. So there is considerable fluctuation in the demand because there has been no limit to the supply of pig meat during this period. The demand for pig meat will fluctuate with the prices of other meats and these will fluctuate with seasonal conditions and these cannot be foretold.

Still, demand can be correctly estimated sometimes, in a rough kind of way. And, after all, if we have more pig meat than we need, we can export it. If we have less than we need, we can eat other meats, so no one will starve. So let’s accept that you can estimate demand.

The next step is to limit production to the demand and this is where your troubles start. From now on, you are dealing not with an industry, but with a lot of farmers who breed or fatten pigs. Your task is to make them produce the estimated quantity of pig meat. So you find out, somehow, what these farmers produced last year. You then look at neat year’s target and allot each farmer an increased or decreased quota. That sounds simple!

But which farmers? Fred used to keep pigs a year or two ago, but not now, so he wouldn’t get a quota, I suppose. He wouldn’t like that and would take it out on me. There would have to be some legal way of stopping him selling pigs. Each farm would have to be registered and the registration would be withdrawn if more than the quota was sold. They couldn’t very well stop Fred producing pigs — after all, he could say that was a decision made by the pigs. But they could stop him selling pigs.

Or could they? I have said before that Fred seems simple but has a way of finding his own way of doing things that people try to stop him doing. If he is anywhere near a State border I suppose he could sell his pigs with impunity. He would have to find someone to buy them but that should not be too hard if the price of pigs was reasonably high. And, after all, I thought that was the idea of the exercise; i.e., to keep the price reasonably high (or even a little higher).

However, let us suppose that Fred is a good boy and doesn’t try to beat the government, though I wouldn’t count on it. But next year let’s say we need more pig meat, because the population has increased. Who gets the increased quota? The people in the industry, of course, they are traditional growers.

This surely means that from now until some time in the indefinite future it is an industry closed to outsiders. But in the pig industry there have been some remarkable technical changes recently. Many of them have been brought about by new people bringing new ideas into the industry. Is this process to stop now? Are there no more technical advances to be made?

Maybe you could overcome part of the last problem by making quotas saleable. This must surely mean that the government would be giving a saleable quota to present growers. This wouldn’t be exactly popular with Fred who would find himself with no quota to sell, and no pigs either. He wouldn’t like that.

So it is not going to be as easy and as popular as I thought. Blast Eccles! I’ll have to think of something else.

(in order of appearance on Economics.org.au)
  1. Bert Kelly on Journalism
  2. Move for a body of Modest Members
  3. Modest Members Association
  4. Bert Kelly's Maiden Parliamentary Speech
  5. Government Intervention
  6. 1976 Monday Conference transcript featuring Bert Kelly
  7. Petrol for Farmers
  8. Some Sacred Cows
  9. Experiences in Parliament
  10. Spending your Money
  11. Who needs literary licence?
  12. A touch of Fred's anarchy
  13. Supply and Demand
  14. Bert Kelly on Disaster Relief
  15. Bert Kelly Wants to Secede
  16. Under Labor, is working hard foolish?
  17. An Idiot's Guide to Interventionism
  18. Bert Kelly Destroys the Side Benefits Argument for Government
  19. Bert Kelly gets his head around big-headed bird-brained politics
  20. First Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  21. Second Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  22. Third Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  23. Fourth Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  24. Fifth Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  25. Sixth Modest Member (Bert Kelly) AFR Column
  26. Bert Kelly on the 2011 Budget and Australia's Pathetic Journalists and Politicians
  27. Bert Kelly, Bastard or Simple Sod?
  28. Liberal Backbencher Hits Govt. Over Import Restrictions
  29. Bert Kelly feels a dam coming on at each election
  30. Bert Kelly Enters Parliament
  31. Why take in one another's washing?
  32. Bert Kelly breaks the law, disrespects government and enjoys it
  33. Gillard's galley-powered waterskiing
  34. Can price control really work?
  35. Should we put up with socialism?
  36. We're quick to get sick of socialism
  37. Time the protection racket ended
  38. Can't pull the wool over Farmer Fred
  39. People not Politics
  40. Bert Kelly admits he should have had less faith in politicians
  41. Labor: a girl who couldn't say no
  42. Why leading businessmen carry black briefcases
  43. Ludwig von Mises on page 3 of AFR
  44. Mavis wants the Modest Member to dedicate his book to her
  45. Time to Butcher "Aussie Beef"
  46. Bert Kelly reviews The War Diaries of Weary Dunlop
  47. Bert Kelly reviews We Were There
  48. Tariffs get the fork-tongue treatment
  49. Bert Kelly reduces government to its absurdities
  50. Politician sacrifices his ... honesty
  51. It's all a matter of principle
  52. Bert Kelly Destroys the Infant Industry Argument
  53. Bert Kelly Untangles Tariff Torment
  54. Bert Kelly resorts to prayer
  55. Eccles keeps our nose hard down on the tariff grindstone
  56. "Don't you believe in protecting us against imports from cheap labour countries?"
  57. Even if lucky, we needn't be stupid
  58. Great "freedom of choice" mystery
  59. Small government's growth problem
  60. Tariffs Introduced
  61. More About Tariffs
  62. Sacred cow kicker into print
  63. Modest Member must not give up
  64. Traditional Wheat Farming is Our Birthright and Heritage and Must be Protected!
  65. Bert Kelly brilliantly defends "theoretical academics"
  66. The Society of Modest Members
  67. John Hyde's illogical, soft, complicated, unfocussed and unsuccessful attempt to communicate why he defends markets
  68. Modesty ablaze
  69. Case for ministers staying home
  70. The unusual self-evident simplicity of the Modest Members Society
  71. Animal lib the new scourge of the bush
  72. The Association for the Prevention of Cruelty to Krill
  73. Repeal economic laws, force people to buy new cars and enforce tariffs against overseas tennis players
  74. Thoughts on how to kill dinosaurs
  75. Let's try the chill winds
  76. Taking the Right's road
  77. Bert Kelly: "I did not try often or hard enough"
  78. Bert Kelly "lacked ... guts and wisdom"
  79. A look at life without tariffs
  80. The Gospel according to Bert
  81. Tiny note on Bert Kelly's column in The Bulletin in 1985
  82. Why costs can't be guaranteed
  83. Hitting out with a halo
  84. Paying farmers not to grow crops will save on subsidies, revenge tariffs, etc
  85. "The Modest Farmer joins us" | "How The Modest Farmer came to be"
  86. Bert Kelly Destroys the Freeloading Justifies Government Argument
  87. Government Intervention
    vs
    Government Interference
  88. Bigger Cake = Bigger Slices
  89. Bert Kelly on the Political Process
  90. Charabanc: Part 1
  91. Charabanc: Part 2
  92. Charabanc: Part 3
  93. Relationships with the Liberal Party
  94. Tariffs = High Prices + World War
  95. Bert Kelly's Family History
  96. Bert Kelly's Pre-Parliament Life
  97. Why Bert Kelly was not even more publicly outspoken
  98. WEATHER IS USUALLY UNUSUAL
  99. How to stand aside when it's time to be counted
  100. How the Modest Member went back to being a Modest Farmer
  101. My pearls of wisdom were dull beyond belief
  102. Bert Kelly on Political Football
  103. Ross Gittins Wins Bert Kelly Award
  104. Interesting 1964 Bert Kelly speech: he says he is not a free trader and that he supports protection!
  105. This is the wall the Right built
  106. Has Santa socked it to car makers?
  107. Is the Budget a cargo cult?
  108. Will we end up subsidising one another?
  109. Do we want our money to fly?
  110. Can a bear be sure of a feed?
  111. How to impress your MP -
    ambush him
  112. The time for being nice to our MPs has gone ...
  113. Don't feel sorry for him -
    hang on to his ear
  114. Trade wars can easily end up on a battlefield
  115. Tariffs Create Unemployment
  116. Bert Kelly recommends Ayn Rand
  117. Bert Kelly's Satirical Prophecy: Minister for Meteorology (tick) and High Protectionist Policies to Result in War Yet Again (?)
  118. Bert Kelly in 1972 on Foreign Ownership of Australian Farmland and Warren Truss, Barnaby Joyce and Bill Heffernan in 2012
  119. Parliament a place for pragmatists
  120. Of Sugar Wells and Think-Tanks
  121. Bert Kelly: "I must take some of the blame"
  122. A Modest Farmer looks at the Problems of Structural Change
  123. Government Fails Spectacularly
  124. Know your proper place if you want the quiet life
  125. Bert Kelly on political speech writers
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